COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

Suppose I could ask the medicals folks here, any reason I shouldn’t sign up for this Novavax trial that was offered?

not a medical person but if you’re in the trial you can’t get another vaccine until you know if you’re placebo or not.

Yeah I know, there’s no chance in hell I’m getting one any time soon otherwise. They offer it to you immediately after its unmasked and you’re in the placebo group though.

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I get that, but lets say hypothetically, the authors of the the initial studies say, “We haven’t studied it specifically, but based on the data we have, we strongly believe that delaying dose two by one month will actually result in increased immunity”

Would you believe that? Of course, that is not the only consideration in whether or not to delay the second dose. So the question is just “Would you believe that statement?” (and not “Would you be in favor of delaying a second dose?” – that’s a more complex question).

In the AZ trial one subgroup got the second vaccine between 9 and 12 weeks and that group had greater immunity than the group that second dose in less than 6 weeks. IIRC the subgroup had about 4500 people (of which about 1800 had the delayed second dose). That is much smaller than the overall numbers, but it’s not nothing.

So, a new clinical trial rather than one of the approved vaccines? Best of luck!

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Yeah it’s a Phase 3 trial.

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Looks like Novavax is a more conventional vaccine, just straight putting in a synthetic version of the spike protein rather than an mRNA to induce your cells to make it, or a viral particle covered in it. Risks would be minimal for anything that’s made it this far, and the odds it works figure to be pretty good. I’d go for it.

It’s published. How much louder does it need to be?

They’re not the ones making the decisions. They are just telling you what their studies found.

I think they are doing some along these lines. But they take time. If you’re looking at a 12 week schedule and then checking immunity, you’re looking at 4 months minimum. What do you do between now and then. Obviously if you have enough vaccine, you just stick with the schedule. But if you don’t, then what? If your best guess is that giving more people shots and delaying the second dose will save more lives, but you don’t have absolute proof of that, it’s a tough call. And there are lots of credible people making this argument:

I’m not saying this line is correct, but I think I’m more loath to dismiss it than most here. Also to be clear, the “less efficacy” he is referring to is the time between the shots (everyone agrees on that), not after the second shot.

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Disclaimer: I’m not making an argument, just an observation. I think we listen to the scientists and do what they tell us to do.

There are quite a few vaccines that allow or recommend you to take the 2nd (booster) shot at a wide range of days or months. I remember years back getting a Hep A vaccine for travel, predictably forgetting to get the booster until the next time I traveled to a risk zone 9 months later. I was shocked when they told me to just get the booster and I was gtg for 10 years.

Again that is not real evidence but some vaccines are lenient on when the booster shot is administered. More likely than not there are other time frames for the 2nd shot. The fact one time period works is not proof the others don’t though.

You know how long it is before you get unblinded?

Only real downside is if you suddenly get access to another vaccine… I suppose their isn’t as much proven safety data either. If you think that’s worth the risk then go for it.

If you get access to the pfizer/moderna vaccine you would be breaking protocol but they can’t stop you from taking it.

The other issue is that you can’t really change your behavior because you won’t know if you got the placebo or not… not that you should otherwise.

At the end of the day, it’s a judgment call entirely based on your preferences, no clear right or wrong answer.

My employee’s ex-wife and kids tested positive, so his test is certainly a false negative.

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Oh hell no. We had his old assistant, who was let go after the PPP ran out, come in to help out. She really needed the money. Planning on doing the same thing next week. Today is 10 days since onset of his symptoms and he says his fever is gone, so he wants to come in next week, but we’re going to give it another week for safety’s sake. Just to be clear, he’s not losing any money as a result of this.

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Sames.

The entire province of Quebec has been getting blasted with emergency alerts today about the curfew going into effect tonight. They’re emphasizing the fines and they seem to mean it, promising lots of extra police on patrol.

We are now at a WM 7dma of 248k/3249. That seems bad.

A week ago I registered in my State’s system to get the vaccine. An hour ago I received a text from the state’s department of health with instructions for an event to get the vaccine. First come first serve.

Within 15 minutes I was able to get me, my wife, and our parents who are all over 70 appointments to get the vaccine on Monday.

I’m pretty happy about that, but I don’t get why I received a text and not one of our parents who are older and who were also registered in the system. Pretty random, but we’ll take it.

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Are you in a high-risk group?

If you don’t mind me asking, what state?