Vaccination pace will accelerate in the next few weeks, we’ll get 10% by the end of January and 25% by the end of February. That combined with the 20%+ of infected will lead to partial modified herd, and positive cases will decrease monotonically starting in late winter.
I admitted 6 covid patients today, two required high flow, zero intubations though. Shit day.
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How does this compare to prior days? Is this a lot?
yeah it’s a heavy day for the site i’m working at today. Smaller hospital.
Thanks. Sucks.
UPDATE from doc: still doing well lying on his back so moving off rotation bed to regular bed, off med that kept him paralyzed (used to help heal injured lungs) not needed now, still holding at 40% oxygen, slowly decreasing sedation meds. All good and moving closer to getting off ventilator.
Update from my family member. No idea what the prognosis is for a decent recovery from here. But they’re not talking about “decision day” any more. So I guess all the praying worked.
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All very good news there. Decent way to go but that is exactly what the path to recovery looks like from the brink.
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We aren’t going to come close to hitting these metrics. There aren’t even enough doses manufactured to hit 10% fully vaccinated by the end of January much less have them in arms. Having 33m fully vaxed in 3 weeks and 90m fully vaxed in 7 weeks like you predict is impossible. We will be lucky to have 90 million fully vaxed by the beginning of summer.
We provably have less than 1m who have received both doses at this point and maybe 6m who have received 1.
Also as has been stated 100 times “partial modifed herd” isn’t a thing. Using that term honestly makes me wonder if you are trolling. Almost all of the benefit of herd immunity comes towards the end when most people are immune. If we are lucky that happens towards the end of the year.
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didn’t mean fully vaccinated, meant at least first shot.
It was Birx speculation.
“Dismayed, officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tried to have the speculative statements removed but were unsuccessful, according to three people familiar with the events.”
Only a few more days and all these clowns will be gone.
That still seems wildly optimistic. You think they will quadruple the output for the next 3 weeks from that they have done in the first 4?
The experts say we won’t see significant reduction in death from the vaccine for several months. I don’t see any reason to not believe them especially as all metrics are still exploding upwards.
I think that’s plausible. I think the pace of vaccination is going to increase dramatically. I also wasn’t exactly saying I think this is going to happen, just that what sort of numbers we might see if the vaccination program goes well. Like an optimistic but plausible scenario.
Having 90m people with first shots in their arm in 7 weeks requires about a 1000% increase of our current rate. I just don’t see any evidence we are suddenly going to get much much better at this immediately.
Of course we will get some better over time but we are currently doing about 1.5-2m shots a week. We would need to increase that to roughly 15-20m shots a week starting immediately to hit your 90m target. Yes that is higher than 90m shots because some of the people vaccinated between now and then will also need to come in for their second series. To get 90m first shots in arms by then you probably need to give 140-150m total. It isn’t going to happen. I’d gladly bet on it.
Right but 2 million shots a week is a pathetic pace. Increasing that pace tenfold doesn’t require some sort of Herculean effort, so it’s very plausible. I don’t want to bet on it.
Ya I’m not doing the Keeeeeed thing where you support your argument with nothing but your own speculation while I try to convince you what you are saying is ridiculous. Of course 2m/week is pathetic. The reasons why we are doing 2m/week aren’t going to magically immediately disappear. Yes they will get better with time but expecting 90m first doses by Feb 28th is just not realistic. There is no presentable evidence it is realistic. And this “partial modified herd” nonsense isn’t a thing.
So your point isn’t based on reality or science and I will just leave it there.
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Why in the world do I need to present evidence? Of course I’m speculating, so are you with your deaths per day by month going out to like September. We can just wait and see how many are vaccinated.
The difference is my starting point is based on the actual data today and speculating from there. Yours is based on nothing but fantasy.
sorry didn’t mean to disrupt your good and scientific speculation with my bad speculation. Carry on.
Is Birx like the Scott Atlas of actual doctors or something?
When I looked her up on Wikipedia I found this gem:
Birx has traveled to virus hot spots around the country to discuss mask mandates and social distancing guidelines with state and local officials.
“I don’t always travel during a pandemic, but when I do it’s a whistle stop tour from virus hotspot to virus hotspot for in-person meetings about the importance of social distancing.”
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