I skipped unstuck for about a month so Ive missed out a lot, but no posts about breaking the 300k barrier in the US for a day?!?
Weāve been distracted watching the birth of a full blown insurrectionist movement.
God bless Trump, I forgot about covid for a couple days.
No kidding. Take your eye off the ball for a few days and you look back to see weāre at almost 24k deaths already 8 days into the new year.
I tried and am continuing to try to present an argument and some concepts without being personal. So I will make this one request: please read what I wrote with the assumption that my intent is āgoodā and I donāt think itās anyway wrong to think and discuss different schedules. I do think that there is good chance the overall society optimum is different than simply following the schedule as listed.
Now to a response:
Thatās what I mean by the net calculation from expert epidemiologists:
Is there a different dosing regime that is better on a societal scale vs what is best for the individuals
Solving that equation requires more data and less guessing. I have no idea if 50% of the people at 70% protection is better or worse for society than 95% protection for 25% of population. The calculations are complex and also must factor in behavioral changes of those vaccinated. None of us itt or in the lay press can answer this. Itās very possible the intuitive answer does not hold up. The likely delivery timeline of more vaccine also plays a big role in the calcs.
My read and instinct is that we
- Give on schedule to the vulnerables
- Start everyone on schedule
- Work to understand options ASAP
- Implement better options ASAP
That may take a few weeks. But for goodness sake donāt guess. Thankfully we will have a non interfered CDC in the US soon.
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All of these things are super obvious. Not just to me, but Iām sure to public health officials in the UK. Obviously itās a complex problem and there are many factors involved.
But you canāt even begin to grasp the problem unless you are clear on what exactly the problem is. There are tons of people in this thread who are saying the equivalent of āWell we canāt deviate from the scheduleā¦because scienceā and that is really all the depth theyāre capable of. Thatās why I was asking people what exactly the problem is. Saying āWell thatās the dosing schedule they studiedā is not incorrect, but itās completely unhelpful if for some reason you canāt replicate the study parameters (which is kind of the problem).
I donāt think any of the experts discussing these things are really guessing (in the way that you mean). Theyāre doing #3 based on data we already have and information we already know. Itās incomplete and their recommendations may change based on additional information that they obtain.
It would be equally āunknownā to say that we donāt know that a 3 dose regimen works. I mean weāve only tested two doses. We donāt have data to show that a third dose doesnāt just undo everything.
Now obviously that sounds ridiculous. And the reason why is that is because even though we donāt have a study for that exact thing, it makes no biological sense. In this case, itās easy to grasp. But this is the exact argument that the researchers are making when it comes to spacing out the vaccine. They are saying that there is a lot of evidence to suggest that spacing it out by several weeks more is only likely to increase the immune response (after second dose). Itās not biologically plausible that it would work any other way. Iām no vaccine expert, but unless you think theyāre lying or misinformed themselves, thatās pretty compelling.
I agree there are other reasons not to space out the doses, but I think that the specific one about it not working as well (after second dose) is almost a non-issue.
I donāt think anyone is debating this. This is everyoneās number one option. Whatās the second best option? Thatās a really tough question based on the info we have and the time constraints.
Holy shit
Yeah weāre hitting 500k deaths by the end of January. Itās absurd.
You put a lot of trust in decisions that are being filtered through a political lens- think of Trumpistan and Borislandia as the worst examples.
I want these decisions made by the actual experts not some politician with an agenda that may have nothing to do with public health.
Iāll give you a much more benign example.
Dining is approved in many states at āx%ā capacity not because thats good public health policy but because there is no financial support for owners and staff and there is huge public backlash.
Then we hear, āindoor dining must be OK because the government says it isā. BS.
Its a circular firing squad that is HIGHLY ANALOGOUS to folks making up conspiracy theories about voting, other folks amplifying the theories and then claiming that since a large number are concerned about the voting fraud it must be true.
I guess we are going to talk past each other. Thatās fine cause neither of us determines how our governments are going to implement.
Iām not even sure what discussion you think weāre having.
Iām certainly not in support of them from deviating from the schedule. And why on earth do you think I would want some politician making these decisions or trust that they would make the correct ones on their own.
Thatās nothing. We are still 2 weeks away at least from the Christmas death wave
Sorry thatās what I meant ātalking past each otherā. Sometimes thatās disagreeing. Sometimes we are saying similar things with different lingo.
I do like the discussion, but I think itās kind of reached an endpoint until new info comes in.
Iām not Cuse. Iām not going to write a dissertation of your posts and try to prove you wrong (god bless his energy). Itās just My understanding of what you write at times. I could be wrong. Not too worried about it either way. We both want the same thing.
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100% peak obviously
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Such a pessimist. Itās not like weāve had any recent events where a thousands of unmasked people from all over the country all got together in close quarters for a few hours and then went right back home to spread any infections they acquired to their communities.
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The Christmas hospital bump should come in another 1-2 weeks right?
Then we have the NYE bump. Which should be mostly youngs - so maybe a second generation bump of olds in like 7 weeks.
Then the Superbowl bump - which should be an all-skate! (ask your parents)
But then, weāre good until at least St. Patrickās Day, if not Easter.
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Yeah. We will mostly all either be part of a priority vaccination group or have COVID by mid year. Iāve accepted my fate. Seems dumb to die of this with a working vaccine invented but the majority of COVID deaths will come post vaccine.