COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

It’s just fat, salt, and bits of DNA as far as I’ve heard. Maybe some sugars are in it?

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That’s the general plan actually. Finish her current contract in a couple weeks, do an emergency contract and then take a couple months off. Hopefully by then the worst of it is over.

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And the problem is?

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Oh gawd. When I was setup in an apartment for work in San Diego all is displaced souls hung out a the pool/hot tub.

Euro guy and his banana hammock. Don’t be that guy.

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New PSA champion in Nevada.

Makes no allowance for new variants? Like that’s best case scenario

I was planning on 2 dicks and now I get double testicles (great)

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My mother in law got the vaccine today. She’s a county clerk. Her niece works for the health department so I’m pretty sure she just hooked her up. Excited for her!

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I wonder if my status as an employee of a university will help.

However, this is only one of many mutations that are found in the new forms of the virus.

So while the study has been welcomed, it is not being seen as definitive scientific evidence about how the vaccine will perform.

Ya I mean that’s what I’m basically saying. 1m dead by the end of the year without a drastic change in leadership is not only possible, I think it is likely. Like you say there are worse scenarios than that.

3.5x cases in 6 weeks is possible (US = 2x cases in 5 days after biden (20th?) IMO - if that can be measured)

Better hope the US doesn’t have this new variant - it could be 3x as bad as you imagine assuming better mitigation than US has managed so far

One would think. I know being a teacher helps me. I’ll probably get the vaccine in April or May rather than the middle of the summer in the CR.

?

I think/hope it may not be this bad. 60% of deaths are in the 75+ group, so once you get those people (~25 million) vaccinated, you get a big slowdown in deaths. Vaccinating the 30MM 65-75 year olds gets rid of another 20% of the deaths. SuperCOVID is going to be lit though. Ireland’s daily cases are up 5x on a week ago, which is so nuts that it must be at least in part a reporting artifact, but it’s not looking that good.

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you all better have ponied me on this but

The White House coronavirus task force said there could be a new variant of the virus that evolved in the U.S. and is driving spread, according to a document obtained by NBC News.

on top of staggering incompetence, USA going for #1 COVID strain

it’ll be nice to see where the dust settles on this, because the spike is higher because covid is more widespread and restrictions are either non-existent or not followed by huge portions of the community.

I’m absolutely 100% against messing with the two-dose schedule, I trust that research

so please file this under Anonymous Dude Just Anonymously Asking Questions, but this article suggests an R0 of ~2.5 for the new strain in recent cases in Ireland. Taking that at face value and doing pure back of envelope gorilla math here, if the R0 is 2.5, and if there are say only 100 total cases of the new variant in the USA rn, and if transmissions happen in the first week of a sick person’s getting the virus (aggressive but spitballing), then that gets us to 1 million new cases, per week, of just this variant, by St. Patrick’s Day.

So here’s the JAQing off part: in a world where we’d way rather get immunity through injections instead of infections, is there any case whatsoever for delaying a second dose in favor of giving more people a first dose?

Again, all of my instincts are I’m 100% against messing with the two-dose schedule, and I’m guessing that combo of: infection sometimes takes longer than one week to pass on + countervailing effects of vax on new strain R0 + the reduced effectiveness of vaccine when it’s just one injection = just stick to the plan and batten down the hatches yo

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The case is mainly wishcasting that the first dose offers at least some protection, even if you don’t get full protection until the week after the second. The problem is that the data show that there isn’t much difference between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated until about 5 or so days after the second shot, at least in terms of numbers of new cases. It might be a reasonable hypothesis that the people with 1 shot get milder cases than the people with 0, but that’s strictly a hypothesis at this point as far as I’m aware.

Edit: not accurate, see reply.

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Oxford first vaccine gives the majoirty of immunity, 2nd dose is just a booster (Oxford)

Pfizer themselves have 6 week on the manual - not for max efficacy - but for some immunity

Biden will follow suit on delaying the doses