COVID-19: Chapter 7 - Brags, Beats, and Variants

UK virus strain found in more US states

Medical researchers have found evidence that the faster-spreading variant of the coronavirus that was first discovered in the UK has been spreading throughout the US.

In the past week, the strain has been found in Texas, Connecticut and Pennsylvania.

Colorado was the first US state to discover the mutation on 29 December. Since then there have been at least 50 US infections.

It has also been found in California, Florida, New York and Georgia.

Link to aboveā€¦

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Biden isnā€™t lying his ass off and spreading 4chan memes and appointing his grifty son-in-law to handle the pandemic, so Iā€™m pretty sure this ā€œboth sides are the sameā€ thing doesnā€™t work here.

Bidenā€™s job is to manage vaccine logistics and push out accurate scientific information about the virus. Beyond that, he doesnā€™t really have any ability to enforce a federal stay-at-home order and he canā€™t force a nation full of anti-vax idiots to take the vaccine.

CDC: Over half of US cases spread by people with no symptoms

Researchers at the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) say more than half of all Covid infections are transmitted by people who do not show any symptoms of the virus.

According to their scientific model, which was described in the Journal of American Medicine Association on Thursday, 59% of transmissions come from asymptomatic carriers.

Of that figure, 35% come from people who are pre-symptomatic, and 24% are transmitted by people who never show any sign of infection.

The researchers say their findings emphasise the need for common sense virus mitigation measures, including wearing face masks in public

Link to aboveā€¦

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So far, heā€™s called for masks nationwide, but the doctors on his covid advisory board have said that a national lockdown isnā€™t necessary. The Biden plan is likely to support states in making local decisions to ramp up restrictions within the wide gulf between those two points, but itā€™s still on the states to do that.

Iā€™m pretty sure those things are actually not plentiful. For example, here is a story about medical personnel begging Biden to invoke the DPA to manufacture PPE.

Maybe his Day 1 priority should be COVID relief checks instead of the vaccine.

Hopefully a better relief bill so that states that want to restrict activity can better do so without fearing economic calamity and so that schools can have the resources to actually reopen safely when appropriate. Maybe scaled testing and N-95s for everyone to help slow the spread, although havent really heard about a Federal push on that front.

But yeah, the stretch goal for vaccines is basically 1/6 of the country vaccinated by the end of April. Vaccination is a long haul effort, it seems unlikely it is going to get us out of COVID in 2021.

I donā€™t think we get to a million cumulative deaths this year. It is definitely in the range of outcomes though, and Im basing a lot of my hope on the summer being better because of weather forā€¦reasons.

The new Federal government should be assuming COVID impacts through '22 and devising a strategy to get the people through the next two years as healthy and solvent as possible rather than having to do CARES 3, CARES 4 type bandaids, will be cheaper and better in the long-run.

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Just saw a headline that Biden is going to do this and hold back less supply.

Yeah, getting money to people out of work is one key thing the federal government can do to help. I donā€™t expect great things, FWIW.

Obviously Biden will be better than Trump. My point is if the big change is more PPE/testing that wonā€™t have a meaningful impact on the number of dead Americans. The people Trump poisoned area already poisoned. He will need to go farther than that to get it under control. Maybe he will.

Nowhere in my posts have I said we need a nationwide lockdown. We obviously do need to have more restriction than we have. We obviously do need to support states and people willing to do this. Those are things he absolutely could do.

You are 100% right about deaths over the next several months. Weā€™ve tried nothing and are all out of options and the admin change isnt going to be able to do much to slow that train down. Over longer time periods, better chance we get meaningful health/improvement.

And I donā€™t expect him to be a miracle worker either. But he ran on Donald Trump letting the virus run rampant. If his plan is to let the virus run rampant and nibble around the edges he will be slightly better than Trump but that will be a complete failure.

1m dead by the end of 2021 is definitely possible. Itā€™s 2,000 average per day from here. We will be over 3,000 and still rising after today. There is still a good chance that number gets up to or close to 4,000 over the next month or so. The only way I think we donā€™t get there is if we get a substantial number of people vaccinated by summer/fall. Yes there may be some seasonal effects but one reason we fared fairly well in summer 2020 is we mostly crushed the virus through the half-ass lockdowns we did here in March-April. We will have a huge amount of virus prevalence heading into summer this year most likely still.

There is literally nothing stopping Biden the last couple months from getting with state leaders and starting to build out the plan and infrastructure for 1)virus reduction through restrictions 2)more efficient vaccine roll out. I see little evidence he is doing the first, on the second one it seems like his plan is to just get more vaccine to the states and hope they can administer it. Thatā€™s a misunderstanding of the problem. States have more vaccine than what they can administer right now. Stateā€™s are each having to build out infrastructure they canā€™t afford to administer the vaccine. The federal government should be at least overseeing and assisting with that if not taking it over on their own.

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The slow pace of vaccines and the increase in death will converge at some point to where weā€™ll reach 60-70% vaccinated faster than we thought.

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To have a President who isnā€™t actively hindering the pandemic response will be a huge step in the right direction.

Canā€™t wait for Cuomoā€™s 2nd book on leadership lessons from the pandemic

https://twitter.com/winsjuliet/status/1347584146986692609?s=21

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In the short run, no. In the long run, such capacity could be generated, but weā€™re talking years.

I mean in a world where we see slowly declining deaths after February maybe we end up with something like this:

Jan-Feb - 3500/day
Mar/Apr - 2700/day
May/June - 2000/day
July/August -1600/day
September/October - 1200/day
November/December - 600/day

That is a million dead by year end. Someone tell me why they think something like that isnā€™t reasonable given the slow pace of vaccination and the fact half the country isnā€™t planning on getting it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/08/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/

Manchineel have some philosophical issue or just grifting for pork?

Snake.

As far as Iā€™ve heard, the only known risk to getting the vaccine is an extremely rare allergic reaction and they should have staff on hand and make you wait 15 min in case you have a reaction. Odds of that happening are like the odds of winning the lottery.