https://mobile.twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1340590681321054208
3 Likes
And yet the US makes the UK look like Japan.
Swanky daughter is quite high up Public Health and her job is analysing and presenting the Covid data for South East UK that the govt uses. She is firmly of the opinion they are using the new strain as cover and an excuse because their original decisions keeping London in Tier 2 and the country open for Christmas have been so disastrously wrong
13 Likes
Germany and Israel have also said they are mulling a ban on travel from Britain.
Along with the UK, the same mutation of the Covid-19 virus has also been detected in the Netherlands, Denmark and Australia, the WHO told the BBC.
Only in the sense that compared with the US we try to take things in our stride and not get too hysterical about it.
Have you seen the UK infection and death rates?
2 Likes
Iâm not to sure about this⌠Our numbers are horrific
1 Like
This is good to hear and thanks for posting. My initial reaction to the âup to 70% increase in transmissionâ new was one of resignation to being in total lockdown until vaccination hits critical mass.
Any further swankysprog news is warmly welcomed.
7 Likes
Apparently a lot of the testing is happening in real countries. I expect itâs universities here for now. Hopefully the CDC gets fully engaged soon 
1 Like
I have not read the Nate stuff in any detail. What makes sense to me (just an opinion wo research)
Long term care. Residents, staff, and the freelancers that come in and out (physical therapy, beauticians-(yep), clergy whatever
People that are at high exposure- âfront line workersâ. Anyone that works in home health care should be way up the list.
Olds at home
Risk factors folks
The hard part is, who are the community superspreaders? After protecting the most vulnerable then it would seem getting rid of the transmission chains would be next.
Itâs nice to think that at this point that superspreaders=biggest idiots but I donât know this is necessarily true. Maybe we Mutual of Omaha Wild Kingdom dart shoot the covidiots in restaurants and churches wo masks.
2 Likes
I would like to volunteer my services.
Virus variant grew exponentially during lockdown - scientists
A group of scientists advising the government on coronavirus has released the minutes of a meeting about the new virus variant on Friday.
Nervtag, which looks at emerging respiratory threats, concluded with âmoderate confidenceâ that the new virus variant demonstrates âa substantial increase in transmissibilityâ compared to other variants.
Letâs look at what else they concluded about this new variant, snappily named VUI-202012/01 (the first Virus Under Investigation in December 2021):
- The variant demonstrated exponential growth during a period when national lockdown measures were in place
- The new variant can be âchallengingâ to sequence, so estimates of frequency of this variant may be underestimates
- Thereâs not enough data yet to know why the variant transmits more readily than others
- Few cases of this variant have been reported internationally but one confirmed export from the UK to Australia has been reported
- Better data on reinfection, the age distribution of infections, and case fatality rates will be available next week
Up to 0.93 absolute increase in R - as good as uncontrolable by any western lockdown
Is the new variant in the US, yet?
Making this purely about death, and not spread, which the tweet was about, is incredibly disingenuous and you know it
1 Like
Sorry man, take care of yourself, normal flu shit like fluids and rest. Get a pulse ox and watch it. Follow whatever Caffeine says in here about when to hit the ER with oxygen issues if they come up. Hopefully you get a mild case. Stay positive youll be negative soon
3 Likes
There arenât any studies showing that under 12yrs spread at a faster rate than other agre groups but youâd need to (still) believe this is the case to lock up the least likely to die from the virus.
That makes sense. Which is scary.
One of the big differences between camps regarding prioritization, I think, is whether the focus is on reducing the # of deaths or reducing the number of quality-adjusted life years (QALY) lost. (This is assuming away long-run effects of COVID, but I think including them wouldnât change the discussion at all.)
This is where economists (who would generally support a QALY-oriented analysis) sound like super unemotional assholes, but I think itâs reasonable to place value on individual years of life lost. That means explicitly saying things like âThis 35-year oldâs life is worth much more than that 89-year oldâs lifeâ. Which is a horrible thing to say, but that doesnât make it untrue. So if youâre using a metric that places greater value on individuals with a longer life span, that weighs against prioritizing the elderly even though theyâre the ones most at-risk of the disease.
And if medical workers are a significant bottleneck in terms of people being able to survive or not, then I think prioritizing those medical workers makes a ton of sense - vaccinating them doesnât just improve their own health outcomes. It also has the externality of improving other individualsâ health outcomes.
6 Likes
This seems like a scam. Is it a scam?
I get the theory but it seems to assume there is a limited supply of vaccine and a 35yr old is as likely to die as an 89yr were they to contract covid.
If we were talking the last plane out of town and a virus that killed anyone in sight, then the 35yr olds might get the remaining seat on the plane in preference of the 89yr old sure.
But in this instanceof Covid the 35yr old is at least 100x more likely to survive covid so maybe they could wait a few months for their vaccination (jab)
How does it work?
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1340701894621204481?s=21
Reading between the lines
So, motherfuckers, turns out that ACIP revised its vaccine prioritizationâŚ
2 Likes