There is one Facebook account (friend of my brothers) I use to check in on the right-wing-nut jobs.
Still mostly posting stuff about election fraud, but there have been a few posts about vaccines not being effective/causing people to get sick.
Long story short, dont do it. The actual variables you have to meet in order for the insurance to pay out is so specific and narrow, even if you had to cancel because you hadnt gotten the vaccine yet, or the vaccine isnt viable and covid is still running rampant… unless you can prove that you are actually hospitalized with Rona they are unlikely to refund.
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There’s a reason why you cut out the “unless you mean it in the most hyper literal sense in that it hasn’t been directly studied for this.”
But hey, you got the dailymail all I got is this silly MD.
And to be clear, my friends who expect to be vaccinated are other ER docs who have been told by their leadership they expect it. Obviously don’t know if that’s going to happen 100%.
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Yeah the whole point of vacation insurance is that if you think you might need it for some specific reason, that reason won’t be covered.
It’s like trying to buy hurricane insurance as one is bearing down on you.
I’ll probably take a gander at the studies just to double-check the math if I’m able to wade through the jargon enough to do so. BruceZ (the real one) used to say that there’s rampant misuse/abuse of stats in medicine. Already 2 out of the 4 recent vaccines are suspect (the AstraZeneca one and that bam-ba-lam one). The Pfizer one sounds legit, as does the Moderna one iirc, but there won’t be any harm in reading the studies. Maybe it will inform my decision of which one I’d rather take (assuming there will be an option).
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Few things with this.
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Plasma cells don’t have to migrate to your nose and throat. They produce proteins that circulate in your blood.
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This is the most important. Early stages of any disease involve some sort of exposure. While theoretically possible for you to pass a disease from that early exposure, it isn’t how this generally works for this type of disease. The virus has to replicate a lot before you actually become truly infectious. The vaccine stops that replication from happening.
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The all-time USA #194 Covid deaths record is going down today with 3k+ definitely possible. The predictions ITT seem to be holding up pretty well so far unfortunately.
Thanks for your response. I’m just an amateur trying to understand here. So what you’re saying is that this process where plasma cells produce protein that circulate in the blood happens pretty rapidly? Is this model for long lived plasma cells reaching the nose/throat the correct one or no?
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I didn’t mean to hurt your feelings but Cornboy suggested vaccine may automatically equate to international vacations. I’m saying ‘hopefully’ but we’ll need a few months to be sure.
The likes of Australia, NZ, Thailand etc etc aren’t letting you vacation cause you’ve had the vaccine (honest) and a NYC MD said good to go without a study. I suspect whole country’s populations, like Aus not CR will need to be vaccinated before OFV - we’ll then need some sort of ‘unforgeable’ digital proof of vaccine that various countries will accept - more time.
You’re usually called for peer reviewed study whenever i post news of a study so early no chance of peer review so let me know when ANY studies are done re vaccinated transmission - until then it would be normal to not rule it out (US = non-zero chance)
You do seem to have this novel coronavirus sussed. Do you work on vaccines or an expert in respiratory viruses?
I would say ‘cite’ to your constant claims but last time I stated that I think you replied “my *ucking MD is my cite” and we all know docs are never wrong, eh? Want a vaccine made in 12 months, see your MD folks.
Just put me on ignore if you know everything
It’s a complex process that I’m not the most qualified to speak about the nuances of it, but the quick and dirty is that antibodies circulate in your blood and that the immune system reacts quite rapidly to known prior threats through a couple different mechanisms. At least, in diseases like covid it does.
I mean, it seems like a logical position to take that someone who receives an effective vaccination for a disease doesn’t tend to spread it to other folks. Is your position that someone who gets a measles vaccination might be surreptitiously spreading measles around but we just don’t notice because they don’t get sick?
I imagine there’s some delay between when you get your shot and when you have full immunity. But if there are studies showing significant spread by immune people, I’d love to see them because I don’t see how that could even happen.
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I’m not going ignore you and let you spread uninformed bullshit.
We aren’t starting from scratch here. Viral transmission of a respiratory virus isn’t some big unknown the scientific community has never looked into before. Immunity greatly inhibits spread. While not conclusively proven, the risk of covid not following basic, fundamental tenets of germ theory and the transmission of disease is approximately zero. This isn’t an advanced topic, this is taught in high school bio.
Now is it theoretically possible that a disease that is a new virus in a known family is capable of spreading efficiently among people who don’t develop symptoms? Sure. It’s also possible my wife will bring home a friend for a threesome tonight. I’m not holding out hope though.
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Hoping the wife’s friend is female (Edit: don’t want sexism ban so ‘whatever sex partner you’re wishing for’)
Can’t be disinformation if the studies haven’t been done (and not my disinformation)
The only way I could think of is if contact transmission was efficient and a person shook off the covid on other people.
Maybe if there was a three-way and one person had COVID.
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I’m curious what Nate thinks the baseline expectations for like May 1 are. I’m not super optimistic about what things will look like by then.
I mean, 30 million people vaccinated a month (very high estimate) starting on Jan 1 would get us to 90 million with effective vaccination by May 1. About 1/4 of the US population immune thru vaccination. With patchy mitigation (perhaps Rt=1.3) this seems like it could lower the reproduction rate down below 1, sure. A big benefit, but if we’re still at 100k+ cases/day, seeing a drop by a couple percent per day is not going to feel like a considerable improvement.
One thing we will have going for us, I guess, is that by May 1 probably about 60 million Americans will have contracted the virus and have some natural immunity to it.
Personally, I consider significant improvement to be <10,000ish cases per day, and the ability for people to confidently resume doing things they normally do (short of really crowded stuff like indoor concerts w/o masks). I don’t think this will be the case until mid-summer, and we might be back to normal by this time next year, best case. More realistically spring 2022. In light of that, I just don’t see the point of Nate’s tweet.
But maybe I’m wrong and Nate is right, who knows.
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Studies haven’t been done about all sorts of things, that doesn’t mean we need to do them. For us to spend time and resources on things, we should have some sort of theoretical reason to do so. When the mechanism you’re proposing flies in the face of basic germ theory, you might as well demand a study that gravity works on leap days.
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Are you combining those vaccinated plus those already infected when considering your estimate of future transmission rates?
Plus, this…
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And I’d point out that the entire world is about to be a billions-of-persons sized study on whether COVID-19 can spread in an environment of mass inoculation.
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