Something has really changed if 1200 is true. The major contributor states all have 28 day cfrs that are too high for that to make sense. And no way a 7 drop in cases is correlated with a current change in deaths.
this holds for whatever reason.
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Really didnt know what to do with Dewine as far as a nomination. However my SIL facity lost 36/90 and many of those did not go in the official death tally due to no testing. PPE was also very late to arrive.
So he is a nominee
To be fair Cuomo Murphy and Wolf (NY NJ PA) will also be nominated should they test positive.
The committee (me) has spoken.
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I was able to update a number of county graphs today and the findings were fairly interesting. In every place in Texas I’m tracking that I could catch up, all are on the rise. Miracles continue to abound in all the Florida counties I’m tracking. Because of that, I’m ignoring any kind of predictions for Florida based on most recent SDI. L.A. County is trending up as SDI trends down and I’m also expecting Horry County, SC to start ticking up again soon after weeks of drops. As drops in SDI continue, Maricopa County, AZ drops in cases have begun to slow. Orleans Parish, LA continues to have good SDI and is now seeing strong effects from it.
Here are the updated graphs for the 6 Georgia counties:
Even though I’m going in 5 point steps for SDI, I think Cobb County has changes show up around 37 or 38 instead of 40 or 35 SDI because neither of those seem right. For now, they’re not wrong enough for me to change the guess.
Bubbles! Music! Temperature checks!
Best I can figure is that the school gets a huge cut of those insane package prices.
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It’s like they still can’t comprehend AA pre-flop may lose 20% of the time, even though the ROW internet has the simulation for all to see
What are you blathering about
Open the schools!!!
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Old Thales: everything is water
New Thales: everything is coronavirus
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I’m assuming the photo (which I provide for context) has been posted, but not the follow-up tweet:
https://twitter.com/JamieFord/status/1291200722147581952
https://twitter.com/JamieFord/status/1291213504284725249
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Interesting on the paper. The multiplier formula is
16 x positivity^0.5 +2.5
So for the following positivities the multipliers to actual cases
1%- casesx4.1
5%- casesx6.1
10%- casesx7.6
15%- casesx8.7
20%- casesx9.7
25%- casesx10.5
This all seems pretty reasonable to me. We have been guesstimating 5x in places with good testing and 10x for poor testing but it’s nice to have an equation.
They use a herd immunity threshold term that floats with apparent R0. It is interesting to me how these epidemiological constants arent really constants as They are dependent on behavior such as social distancing and mask wearing.
So the better we are at lowering the spread, the lower the apparent R0 and the lower amount of past infection to have herd immunity effects.
It’s really hard to figure out what the true independent variables are. I think those boil down to
—manner of rapid spread (function droplet/aerosol size/# and ventilation)
—minimum virus particles to infect
—infectivity period
—social distancing
Of which we can direct control for 1st and 4th by wearing masks and staying out of indoor space plus staying out of crowds.
That’s as far as I’ve gotten but like this approach.
After seeing this exchange play out half a dozen times already, I believe churchill’s thesis is something along the lines of how (some of) the rest of the world has shown it is possible to have school if you aren’t in a total shitshow like the US, which of course absolutely every single person on this forum is already 100% aware of, but churchill needs to do it in a passive-agressive way that implies superiority even thought the people he wants to talk down to completely agree with the point he’s obliquely trying to make.
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Ciffs -
Forum: The US sure does suck
churchill: lol no you’re all wrong, the US actually sucks
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So what sort of conditions would we agree that it would be appropriate to have in-person K-12 schools open?
In my area, we have about a 0.7% positive rate, and around .3 new cases per 100,000 in population. Would you say that is “good enough” to have in-person school?
Wouldn’t it be nice if we had any sort of data-driven approach that was agreed upon by the experts, rather than a bunch of yokels all trying to invent the same wheel?
If I hear the expression “we’re building the plane as we are flying it” one more time, I’m going to snap. How about, no, I don’t fucking want to fly on a plane that we’re in the process of building. Nobody wants that, how is that somehow even a thing that people consider being a decent idea?
I don’t think I agree that schools can be opened when the country isn’t a shitshow. Israel wasn’t really a shitshow until it opened schools.
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Anyone who argues opening school will have no impact on the spread of Covid is a moron. Sure there is probably plenty of argument about the level of spread but acting like opening school won’t increase the spread is completely moronic.
Especially so with an average of 50-60,000 cases a day.
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It’s more like we are rebuilding a house that has a raging fire.
Your metrics seem good to me to OFS. Still needs masks distancing and a plan if their is a positive(s).
Right now, any place that wants to open schools can wait 5 weeks while it monitors what happens in Georgia, apparently Indiana, and I’m sure a number of other places. They’re boldly doing test cases so other places don’t have to.
If any place is rushing kids into schools, the people running it don’t care about the kids’ lives, especially considering there will be numerous test cases available in the next month to see how things are going. We are repeating the same pattern as OFB where everyone just went pretty close to whole hog at the same time instead of waiting it out to see how it would go in various places. Now we’re doing it with schools, with many more people, with a way higher caseload. I can’t imagine what this is going to look like in comparison to OFB.
For parents who desperately want their kids back in school, will you regret sending them back if your child is the winner of the unlucky lottery? How will that child cope if the child kills you? I don’t have kids, so I’m not qualified to make that kind of decision or wonder about its effects properly.
I know two years ago is a really long time, but teachers might not take this lying down.
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It’s a picture of a hallway with students.
If it makes the school look bad, then it’s the fault of the people who are responsible for making that happen.
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