Good to hear! Are they doing anticoagulation after discharge?
42,000 dead, if that’s accurate, implies 4.2 to 8.4 million cases (1.0 to 0.5% CFR). Population of Iran is 80 million so like 5 to 10% infected so far, which is what you’d expect given the lack of countermeasures initially.
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I’m not sure I’ll have to ask. I know he’s been getting Lovenox.
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If they decide to send him on something make sure he takes it. Seems like he might be one of the people to not take a medication because he feels fine now.
What I’m saying is sdi could be 80% but if it goes from household to household via schools then it could still jump in cases.
Sdi is just cell phones traveling around town, right?
I think the SDI uses mobile phone data to see whether people are leaving or staying home and then goes further with distance from home/length of time/etc. It will probably catch a lot of people who take their kids to school as additional movement (showing much lower SDI). If the kids walk to school and don’t have mobile phones, then it’s for sure going to miss those.
The basic idea is cases will increase regardless of the tracked SDI. If they increase at a high rate or at an SDI higher than the target guess, it’s probably due to that. The main weirdness would be if cases went down after schools open. I agree that it will skew the SDI having the schools open, but still think we’ll notice it when it happens. My post was basically saying when I think that will happen.
Yeah all I’m saying is that as well as SDI has worked for the past few months, it may get confounded by schools opening.
But you get county data, right? So you could actually look at counties with schools open vs close that have similar SDI and maybe get some insight into the impact of schools. Like you said, there would be a delay in the cases.
Yeah, I can check county data. It’s about a week behind current in general. If you have specific counties you want me to track for this, I can tell you how far behind they are right now. Each SDI tracking starts the first weekday day a place was over 40 SDI, so various places are on a stagger.
Based on the most recent measurement period, I’m starting to feel a little lost at the county level. Cases are going down in quite a few places despite no major changes in SDI (could be testing lowering). Cases are also going up in some places. So if a place has shorter commutes that could be affecting how well SDI tracks as a metric as well.
It’s always a concern that SDI won’t be a long term reliable tracker and really was only intended to do two things, 1) give an indication of what length of time might reduce spread 2) what level increases spread. Technically, it was just meant to show us how to get it down and what might cause it to rise (and the second level of getting it down that we’ll likely never get to find out at this rate). It will probably ultimately only be useful for the ends and beginnings of phases and/or waves, though as Dan and I have been thinking about it might help us gauge the max number of cases at various test levels.
Victoria. Australia announcing stricter lock downs.
Meatpacking factory restricted to 2/3rd capacity. With full PPE “as if they were healthcare workers”. Cap. Gown. Mask. Shield. Etc.
ETA.
Large construction. 25% workforce on site. Small construction. No more than 5 people on site.
Just heard Andy Slavitt in CNN. He made the point that if there is any whiff of politicization in vaccine approval it will drive down participation. Apparently some admin clown said something along the lines that it would unethical to withhold a vaccine just because the safety testing isn’t done.
So yeah, they are gonna rush something out.
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Given the other factors involved (like mask wearing compliance), SDI does a great directional job of good/bad. Nunn is doing yeomans work. Really it’s a good way to describe collective behavior and nunn’s intuition of threshold SDI really helps identify states likely to increase/decrease case rate. Math wise we need to figure out how to include number of weeks below threshold to try and get a better estimate on the rate of rise.
I am not knowledgeable about drug / vaccine testing, so I am left with resorting to analogies. In my company, we definitely release new products and services slower than we could because of fear of liability arising from not building in many more tests, controls, etc. pre-launch This is sensible risk management, but in a real emergency with a potentially huge public benefit of an accelerated launch I could see the argument for having government provide an organization with immunity from liability in exchange for forgoing some of the “normal practice” risk controls. Is there such an argument to be made for the Covid vaccine? I really don’t know, like I say I am forced to using analogies which could be misleading.
TYRANNY! RISE UP! THIS IS WHY YOU HAVE THE CONSTITUTION OF AUSTRALIA!
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New 90-minute tests that can detect coronavirus and flu will be rolled out in UK hospitals and care homes from next week.
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An easier factor to calculate than mask compliance would be the existence and strength (suggested, required indoors, required everywhere, required + fine) of a mask mandate. Probably not easy down to the county level, but not too bad to find at the state level. A proxy for compliance level could be Hillary 2016 vote percentage.
For Arizona specifically, the population skews older, which may also be a factor.
My wife has had several coworkers out in the past few weeks with Covid. She just found out one of them who was always taking off her mask every opportunity she got is now in the ICU struggling to breathe. She was in her mid-30s and healthy as far as my wife knows
I’m confused here. You seem to be objecting to the ethical statement. Whats that based on? Because to me that seems obviously true and uncontroversial.
Are their HIPPA regulations that prevent a company from exposing who tested positive?
I work for the Canadian federal drug regulator (not as a reviewer, but I’m familiar with the process) and there is no way whatsoever that a vaccine would be approved without sufficient documentation of safety testing. We just gave out millions to survivors of the Thalidomide tragedy, there’s no way we’re going to repeat that on a much larger scale.
That being said, given the vastly different climate in the US, I’m sure the FDA will be under significant political pressure to fast track a vaccine. I would not recommend anyone take a vaccine that bypassed the safety process in any way.
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