Who knows at this point? I’m starting to wonder if he’s an evil genius or a button mashing LAG who gets to play heads up against the world’s biggest nit.
Ultimately, I doubt it would impact him - don’t think he’s realistically going to feel that kind of pressure.
My theory is that conservatives embrace the tactics that would work against them, so I wonder what would happen if the left imitated branch covidians in going after someone like McConnell.
I mean the tactics that would work against them would be to pick the right hills and be willing to die on them. $2K/mo UBI per person until unemployment is below 8%. Pass it in the House every fucking day, shut down the government, be willing to die on that hill.
Start impeaching motherfuckers. Start charging people in NY with crimes. Pass a balanced revenue bill capping each states federal assistance at the total of it’s federal tax revenue - no more red state bailouts.
None of that will happen, obviously, but also no normal folks are going to do or say shit until he makes his move. Relative comfort and lack of desperation among Americans are the GOP’s friend. Nobody is taking the streets when they can watch Monday Night Football and eat some pizza. When people start losing homes and going hungry, there’s going to be a reckoning and it just might be directed at the right people. Might not be, too, though.
Your assumption that the economy will recover quickly from losing 1 to 3 million people during a worldwide depression is … questionable.
Where did he assume that?
More of a V shape sort of suggests it but doesn’t go the whole hog.
If we had picked the economy over human life from the start, the deaths alone would not have hurt the economy that much. The question is how normal would people behave economically in the midst of all of the death, and that’s a fair question. But if we did then what we’re doing now (quitting for safety is voluntary, no unemployment for that), I think it would have been a V.
Obviously that’s the second worst response of all, we just went with the first.
You can make service / retail workers show up by cutting off their unemployment, but you can’t make consumers show up to spend money. This whole re-open thing is going to be a disaster - the economy will remain in the shitter AND we’re going to get a huge wave of infection and death.
We’ve got a low leak but for some reason we can only stop at gas stations where the air compressor maxes out at 10 psi.
Either that or we have run flats and we are going to drive at freeway speeds.
I don’t think anyone thinks it worse in and of itself (see my post “bring out your dead”).
It’s just discouraging to complete phase 1, get to a net plateau at the MAX number of cases, and then OPEN FOR BUSINESS.
Not only did we not crush the curve, we completely wasted the two months in terms of preparing to safely reopen by not putting in the testing capacity, setting up clear stages of reopening, not even attempting to put together pretty much any trace and contain plan, etc.
It’s implicit in the post I responded to, particularly the bit about a v-shaped dip and recovery.
How are we all feeling about the fall? What happens when - due to COVID - everyone is required to stay home when sick, but we also have 10x as many people with normal cold/flu symptoms?
Barring a treatment breakthrough, it’s hard for me to imagine how we avoid another shutdown.
Ok. Things in our favor vs before Rudy Gobert Day (seriously it should be a national holiday. One more week of large indoor gatherings and we have 3x cases and deaths right now)
There won’t be any large crowds most places. Well aside the From Covidiot Church
Even half the people wearing masks has got to do something
Even OPEN for business in most places means reduced restaurant capacity etc
Lots of people are going to be very cautious and stay the fuck home (raises hand)
5 probably more reasons?
It why I picked a modest R of 1.1. It seems like it’s what the rumored (but not released?) JH model purports. As for as I’m concerned IHME does not exist.
Of course the gradual increase to 3,000 deaths per day in a month will be ho hum. I put in another plateau at that point more or less hoping that local behavior will change in response to local outbreaks. But I think I’m just trying to avoid being too pessimistic.
I suppose it’s possible we saturate the high concentrations of vulnerables (prisons and nursing homes) and the CFR goes down. We seem very intent on trying for this.
The latest cry is to subtract the nursing homes from the stats so we can reach OFB metrics in PA sooner. So F the old people anyhow.
This is a false dichotomy.
This is why.
Also this economy vs health frame is right wing propaganda you should know better than to fall for by now, and not even true on its face. 1% to 3% dead in a few months from a contagious disease will cripple any economy.
It seems pretty obvious what’s going to happen.
The OPEN FOR BUSINESS push will be a disaster because the economy will remain depressed and the health crisis will worsen. At that point there will be enormous pressure to lock down again and fire up the presses to drown the country in stimulus. However, the GOP is quite clearly done with stimulus and isn’t going to pass any more aid. At which point the states will go broke and the Trump Administration will help red states only, and fire up the racism and cheating ahead of the election.
That’s right. There’s no way we were going to agree as a nation to defy our own deaths for the sake of the economy. A real President would have used the opportunity to define a strategy which could have united the country while starving the virus. But that is obviously impossible for President LittleHands. So now we go down the slow road to herd immunity and wait for the arrival of President Biden, who will be relentlessly criticized by Republicans for not rebuilding the economy “fast enough”.
I think these are all good points. Does that Germany article churchill posted where they have already reached 1.1 with a much less expansive “reopening” change your mind at all about what a likely R0 is for pretty much fully reopened states?
I mean here in OKC i would estimate mask wearing at stores to be 40%. Restaurants I have driven by since we reopened the patios look packed and I haven’t seen a mask yet. I realize people here are probably dumber than average but if that behavior can really get us to R0=1.1 then all we need to do here to make it go non-exponential in a place like OKC is make mask wearing mandatory most likely. The majority of metros in the country are more like OKC than NYC.
If you’re right about that last part the country will probably break up. This new gop strat of refusing to spend federal money in blue states is crazy destabilizing.
Let’s say I think some states will be well above 1.1. Hopefully others with lots of population can keep the net R down.
Take Arkansas for example.
https://twitter.com/rabiasquared/status/1259366667844562944?s=21