More confirmation that if you use 0.5% IFR you won’t be too wrong. Likely a little low.
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Alarm as Prague deputy mayor tests positive
Members of Prague City Council are self-isolating after one of the deputy mayors tested positive for Covid-19.
The council had been holding virtual meetings, but it voted to return to in-person meetings. Now all 11 members will have to quarantine following Monday’s seven-hour council session, and several City Assembly members are also being tested.
The Czech Republic has had 10,112 confirmed cases and 332 deaths from coronavirus.
Experts see different symptoms in Beijing outbreak
Medical workers in Beijing are finding that new patients being treated for Covid-19 are experiencing “strange” symptoms, including joint and stomach discomfort.
They are also finding that “different weather, living habits and body types may result in symptoms varying in different regions”, according to the national Global Times newspaper.
This is not the first time Chinese specialists have seen the virus “change”. In mid-May, specialists treating the virus in the north-east noticed different symptoms in patients - fatigue or a sore throat, as opposed to a fever or a persistent cough.
There are concerns that the fresh spate of cases in the Chinese capital could lead to a second wave of Covid-19 nationally.
So far, 137 cases have been reported since 11 June. China’s media say the newly confirmed cases are mild and mainly affect younger people.
People’s Daily has given a statistical breakdown of 106 patients confirmed between 11 and 15 June.
Most are aged 30-39, and the fewest patients are recorded in the 60 and above category (five men and six women). Nobody has tested positive under the age of 20
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And 50% seems like a reasonable theoretical maximum for the percentage of cases that are positively identified, given an extensive testing regime.
This puts CFR between 1 and 2%, best case (this ratio improves as testing improves). So for every 10,000 cases/day we see in the US, expect 100-200 deaths in a lag of about 14 days.
In other words, I expect deaths to remain in the sub-1,000 range for quite some time. Probably roughly until the end of July. Then I think we’ll see them pick up gradually.
Anyone think there is more going on with those Florida women that 100% got it. “Girls without Boys #16”???
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Seatbelts were basically masks when I was in high school. You were a HUGE pussy if you wore your seatbelt. I had several super close calls with accidents - where I’d have been instantly killed because I wasn’t wearing a seatbelt.
Seatbelts are the perfect example of how stupid the general public is, and how they need to be nudged in the right direction sometimes.
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~.5% IFR and ~10x more actual cases than confirmed cases seems to be borne out time and time again.
Meaning US is will maybe be at 10% herd immunity in a month.
6-16 4pm heat map based on 14 day cycle and 14DRA.
Cuse please compare w yours.
Red: AR AZ FL HI OR SC VT
Orange: AK AL GA LA MY NC NV OK TN TC UT WA WY
20 bads to really bads.
Improving: WV WI VA NH NE MD KY CA
The rest are holding in yellow or green.
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I got a ticket for not wearing a seatbelt in 2001. The judge dismissed it and said it was unconstitutional to make anyone wear a seatbelt.
Probably a mortal lock to be a federal judge appointed by Trump now.
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10x more actual than confirmed was height of pandemic IMO.
eg, 200,000 confirmed cases in NYC with 2,000,000 infections implied from antibody testing. But during the height of the NYC peak, they were rocking a ~30% positive test rate.
Now most of the country has fallen well under 10% positive rate, which means we must be picking up a much higher portion of infections than 10%. I’d guess something like 30-40%. The practical maximum would seem to be in the neighborhood.
400 out of 600 workers in a meat packing plant in a semi-rural area of Germany have tested positive. 400 test results still pending.
The county has closed all schools and told 7000 people to quarantine at home.
400 positive tests in this one county is more than we have had for the whole country most of the days this month. Still the official reaction makes me feel mostly positive about Germany still being on track to keep COVID numbers down.
Meat packing seems kind of in an insane situation though. It is the third big outbreak we have gehadert in a factory.
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I don’t know this is the case. I’ve never seen an antibody or any other whole region survey that don’t come out to actual cases being in the ballpark of 10x confirmed cases. If you have one please pass it along.
A high school friend told me to shut the fuck up already when I posted “another 20,000 cases today open for business”
After I replied something about wearing masks. His retort -
“Then what’s your plan Derek I’d love to hear it. Should all small businesses close, should more people lose their jobs, houses, etc.
The virus isn’t going anywhere, it needs to run its course. The more people who get it the more people are immune. We could stay in our houses for a year and guess what it would just have the same trend next year. If you want to stay home then stay home, the rest of us need to make money to live.”
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Meat factories are basically the only place we’re seeing clusters in Ireland for the past few weeks.
I honestly haven’t seen many antibody tests published lately. A quick google of Geographic Seroprevalence Survey COVID mainly shows the one from Santa Clara County which is pretty meaningless at this point.
In NYC, the fact that overall cases have increased by 30% since the previous serology survey, while the share of people with antibodies has barely moved, would seem to support the notion that they’re catching way more than 10% of the infections now.
It would be best if a state with few infections and a low positive rate this entire time were surveyed.
I would love to take a look at a copy of the code if you can PM it to me.
Thinking you need to be open for business and being against wearing masks at the same time seems like zero level thinking.
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Tell him “Yes. Close the economy. Freeze rent, mortgages, and utilities until a vaccine is developed. Hand out UBI to all Americans until then so they can buy food. The Fed handed out $1.5 Trillion to Wall Street after a shitty week even though they had an 11 year bull market. Now it’s time to help out the rest of us.”
Then sit back and watch his head explode.
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