Sorry, Will.
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That’s interesting, but way off from the numbers I (and I assume Dan) are getting.
Are you able to try to find where the discrepancy is? I know he’s getting case data from the same place they are.
I took a quick glance and didn’t see their methodology. Based on the rapid growth in these states, I don’t see how ~1.2 can be accurate, or how it can be such a similar number to what we have in PA, for example. I’m open to being convinced I’m wrong, but right now I don’t see how the numbers could be that low.
Meanwhile in Alabama…
https://mobile.twitter.com/ABC/status/1278430344392388611
Not sure if this should go here or the STI thread.
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I guess I have to be that guy picking fights again. Are we really going to refer to women as “swamp donkey” around here?
This part was clever though:
50k inbound in the next 45 minutes or so. It doesn’t seem like we can go too much higher with the actual stats as the pozz rate is very high in the areas surging.
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Calculating Rt
Rt represents the effective reproduction rate of the virus calculated for each locale. It lets us estimate how many secondary infections are likely to occur from a single infection in a specific area. Values over 1.0 mean we should expect more cases in that area, values under 1.0 mean we should expect fewer.
Download calculated Rt values per-state
Read more in our FAQ.
Our model code and website source are available on GitHub .
Case count data from The COVID Tracking Project.
While we make a best effort to accurately describe Rt, nothing can do that perfectly. Please calibrate with other sources, like epiforecasts.io, as well.
While we may not be able to respond to every email, you can reach out here.
Model by Kevin Systrom and Thomas Vladeck. Powered by PyMC3.
Site built by Mike Krieger, with thanks to Ryan O’Rourke and Thomas Dimson.
My bad, where is it and what do u think has changed?
In the simplest terms, it searches for the most likely curve of Rt that produced the new cases per day that we observe. It does this through some neat (and powerful!) math that is beyond the scope of this FAQ. In more complex terms: we assume a seed number of people and a curve of Rt over the history of the pandemic, we then distribute those cases into the future using a known delay distribution between infection and positive report. We then scale and add noise based on known testing volumes via a negative binomial with an exposure parameter for a given day to recover an observed series. We plan on publishing our code soon, so if you’re so inclined you’ll be able to run it, too.
So what they’re doing is trying to actually create a model of an Rt curve that explains the current situation. I’m just taking the raw data and calculating an Rt based on the last 28 days of cases.
Are we going back to Rt now? Cause I think that’s accurate, but being badly outnumbered by people using R0, I just acquiesced.
I’ve played 6 rounds and not seen one mask yet. I think wearing a mask, unless your in a cart w a total stranger , is extreme and maybe paranoid.
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I’ll leave R0 vs. Rt to the scientists. I’m going to check their Rt vs. my SDI graphs later tonight out of curiosity. SC lined up with their spike of cases beginning in that mid-May area (though they were still right on the target SDI line).
Yea, I feel like I’m pretty careful in general, but I don’t wear a mask golfing. I haven’t shared a cart with anyone but my wife, but have played in the same group as others. Maybe I’m overconfident on the advantages of being outside?
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Precisely why we need a wall
“It’s not all women” does not defend using disgusting and offensive language to refer to women. As for your “perception of my range” you can go fuck yourself.
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I do worry that golf in particular would probably have you within 5-15 feet of people twice per hole. Even when trying to distance, it’s not perfect and the habit when golfing is to be near other people on the side of the tee box or green, so it’s not natural instinct to distance.
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I not so secretly like this song, it’s my greatest shame other than delayed loss of virginity.
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Hey Will, man, I’m holding some space for you in my heart for this. The family too. This is awful.
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