COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

Houston poker is OPEN FOR BUSINESS. 7 handed, masks optional. What have you got to lose, other than your money and your life?

https://twitter.com/unomaas/status/1263294985992114176?s=20

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So many people are acting like this and have been for the last month, and yet the daily death counts have been on a downward trajectory over the last month. I’m going to theorize that extraordinary precautions aren’t really necessary b/c so many people haven’t been taking them, the virus is known to be highly contagious, and yet deaths fall.

Then right after the election is over and Trump is done gloating, the second wave comes back and kills like 3M Americans as it has mutated to be a little worse, nobody is taking precautions, nobody believes the media or the scientists, and everyone stays open. It’s early enough in his second term that he just blames Obama and gets credit for the recovery, putting him in a strong position as he runs for term #3.

I dont think we’re going to war of the worlds out of this one.

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Not on top of this like many in this thread, but I saw on MSDNC that if you split out NY, NJ and CONN, deaths in the rest of the USA are going up. That’s now and in 3-4 weeks with reopening we should expect increases.

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Good news, guys, we’re officially open for business and returning to normalcy with a mass shooting in Arizona! Nothing can slow down USA#1! USA! USA! USA!

God Bless America, land that I love.
Stand beside her, and guide her,
as we try as hard as we can to kill ourselves!
From the shootings, to the virus,
to corruption, stained with blood!
God Bless America, my home, stuck, home…
God Bless America, my home, stuck, home!

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Yeah I think it’s even worse if you include some of the other states going down. But, not to worry, liberals seem to agree with conservatives that if you just reopen and stay strong, it’ll go away.

Yeah, the thing is, reporting live from a red state, people have been, let’s say, less concerned generally than the folks in this thread and the death rate here is still very low (like FLA low, another state that has, uh, people running around like idiots for even longer than in AZ).

NY/NJ/CONN still have the three worst per cap numbers and so they had a lot more room to improve

I guess you could say shit will hit the fan when shit hits the fan.

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Lol, that is such shitty joke I should delete my account.

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Daily death counts are way down in the states that locked the fuck down. Pretty much up or flat everywhere else.

But the rubes can’t figure it out. I think most of us see bad poker players playing the same bad poker year after year without changing anything.

Ignoring Trumpiness, the factors are
-Math innumeracy
-science illiterate
-can’t trust geeks
-Inability to conceptualize risk/reward
-Inability to act on risk/reward even if they know it
-can’t delay gratification

Big big difference between average and median intelligence.

I don’t get it. It’s like a magic two month timer has gone off and it’s over. Sports June1 at least gathering to practice for restarts.

My hope is that enough athletes/coaches test positive that leagues/ncaa have no choice but to shut back down. That should pierce the consciousness of those stuck in the matrix for a few weeks. Otherwise it’s “schools are open” and the massive second wave hits in the fall.

I am in the camp that something will happen to somewhat makes us avoid the absolute worst outcome but we will be much closer to the worst than the best possible death totals by Thanksgiving.

So you think the second peak will have higher daily death count than peak one?

Do they know today was the highest number of cases in the world to date?

These thought processes drive me crazy. The more everyone opens up the more susceptible you are to transmissions from other places.

Places that haven’t had it yet were just lucky not magical. Places that have had it were unlucky but also not magical. There is no evidence that anyone is close to herd immunity so any place becoming heavily infected right now is on the table.

Anyone who thinks we are coming out of the other side of it right now have no ability to analyze information. We are actually at an incredibly precarious point and we seem bound and determined to screw it up.

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Illinois the new leader in new cases.

No and making conspiracy-driven points like that is what got me asked to stop being an unproductive part of the chat, and let to me seeing my self out. This is two of my best friends from college, too.

We’re so fucked as a country. I guess it’s time to suck it up, buttercup. I’ll try to put a productively positive spin on it: hey we’re only going to lose 1-2 million people, most likely, hopefully I’ll only know a couple of them personally. We’ve gotta go sometime, am I right? Americaaaa, yeah!

One of them lives in Chicago lol…

The comparison is 1918. Fall was 5x the peak and much longer lasting than spring.

The demographics of this will prevent Covid from being that extreme. We may
A. whack enough Of the concentrated olds to not have as many targets in the high death demo
B. Maybe at least realize we need to better protect some of the most susceptible places like nursing homes and meat plants ( but fuck the prison population including staff)
C. Locally respond better w masks if things start going up nearby.
D. Have a national event like sports having a very visible outbreak over the summer to scare people and keep college/schools closed.
E. Science. Maybe we figure something out like vitamin D that actually makes a real difference.

If I had to totally guess I’d say a peak at about 100k deaths per month, about 50% above spring peak of about 60-65k.

Yeah but that might be 10,000 broadcast viewers and 10,000 legal clients.

That is my biggest hope in this fiasco at the moment. That some form of treatment has a real impact on severity of illness etc.

https://twitter.com/pithypacky/status/1263308420976832513?s=21

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