Looks like the US stockpile was good until 2016? Don’t think it cover H5N8 or whatever might be circulating these days
Could be wrong
Source
Haven’t looked at this in any depth, but this is a start
Kinda the whole point of the flu is that vaccines developed in the past aren’t going to work terribly well against this strain.
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and mink (mammals)
The stockpile was not cracked open? Maybe the vaccine needs taking a few months before infection. If this is the case, I trust the kids will get the stockpile (first in line this time round) whilst the US takes the quoted 6 months to turn stockpile into mass vaccination.
6 cycles to infect every last bird on earth? Sure thing, buddy.
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Avian flu is known as one of the most infectious diseases: the R number, which was often discussed for the spread of Covid-19, can be as high as 100 for avian flu, meaning one bird can infect as many as 100 others.
More than 3.8 millions birds have been culled in the UK this year following Avian H5N1 outbreaks and the virus continues to move fast among both farmed and wild bird populations. In densely packed populations, the reproduction, or “R,” rate can be as high as 100, meaning one bird will infect as many as 100 others.
Dated Nov '22 and risk has been re-evaluated today
I reckon we’re gonna find Cambodia is ground zero for human to human transmission within 7 days from now, sooner probs (parp)
Good job those 50,000 minks in Spain were culled before it leaked out
Pigs are reasonable mixing vessels. They might have played this role in some previous outbreaks and pandemics. But there’s a much better candidate: mink. Mink readily harbour human and avian flu viruses. As predators, they can easily acquire avian flu from the meat they eat. The distribution of sialic acid receptors – a key determinant of infection – in their respiratory tracts is similar to that of humans. Human flu strains can pass between them through aerosol transmission.
Mink also possess, to a remarkable degree, what scientists call “zoonotic potential”: in other words, they can be infected by, and infect, many different species. During the first phases of Covid-19, they proved to be highly effective intermediaries, partly because the virus seemingly evolves faster in mink than in humans. They appear to have generated at least two new variants that spread to humans, one in Spain and one in Italy. Mink are the only known species that both received Covid-19 from humans and passed it back to them.
One bird being able to infect as many as 100 others is in no means equivalent to an R of 100.
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https://twitter.com/tpwky/status/1597592026932994052?s=46&t=XghnJfLmO6HSAgr0q5S9Xw
https://thispodcastwillkillyou.com/2022/11/29/episode-110-influenza-take-2-fowl-play/
This states what R can be in a very specific population. Using it to describe a disease’s R like you did is wrong.
The avian flu has a nearly 100% mortality rate in chickens, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It is so contagious that even a chance gust of wind can carry wild-bird droppings toward a barn vent and spread the virus inside, Mr. Dean said.
fyp
How do we expect this virus to affect humans, should it ever make the leap, soon, If it hasn’t already…sure hope Cambo Dad visited the lake with the 11yr old!
You remain yourself. The guardian did state in a specific population. You did not. You should have been able to figure this out because I said “This states what R can be in a very specific population”.
It’s not some secret what R means, and you were wrong.
11 posts were merged into an existing topic: Unburying the Past (more bickering)
pretty sure the next round of vax will be for fowl birds. save the chickens, save the world.
Happy Friday!
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A few beers here as it’s my son Tom’s birthday (no offence meant by my posting)
good to see we all survived covid (thanks to my excellent poasts offering early information)
rest assured I shall be here for bird flu
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the diffusion model looks to have different distribution than that of a process which would characterize as intra-mamalian.