I don’t think anyone here is doing this. The range of opinions is probably a thing to probably not a thing.
I think I’m probably the most long Covid skeptic here, and my position is “very likely a thing, but a lot of people claiming to have it probably don’t”
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Yeah, those category groupings are quite loose. For example, if the incidence of it (whatever it is) is 1/100K*, I suppose it technically is a thing, but for my decision making purposes that falls in the not a thing category.
So for me “not a thing” is really more like “not a thing to worry about”.
*I just arbitrarily picked a number here without really thinking much about it
More I’m saying those people treating me like I’m crazy, like there’s definitely/almost certainly no risk of long covid, are overlooking a pretty obvious risk of some significant problems down the line.
Like my big thing here on UP is, I’m not seeing like a scientific or logical argument as to why long covid is not something to worry about. I’m seeing stuff that seems more based on feelings and desires to return to normal.
Given the way UP has been towards COVID from the start, it’s making me feel like I’m insane. It seems like the studies I have posted that are not enough evidence yet to draw conclusions always get responses, and the ones that seem more solid just get ignored. But maybe that’s in my head, I don’t know.
I snipped this here cause there’s no need to quote the whole thing, but it makes my point. You typed up a pretty good 440 word synopsis of the situation, with one glaring exception. You completely left out long covid. There are four main areas of risk from covid:
- Severe disease up front - death/hospitalization
- Shortening your lifespan due to some sort of ticking time bomb that hits in your 60s.
- Messing with your quality of life in between due to brain, lung, or heart problems.
- It’s “just a cold” but it’s a really shitty cold and it sucks.
You addressed 1, 2, and 4. I don’t have an issue with addressing 3 and saying here’s how it factors in and here’s why I’m getting back to normal/near normal despite it. But how is one of the people here who for 2.5 years I have considered among the handful of best informed among us and most expert among us just completely ignoring #3 on that list in their decision?
THAT is what makes me feel crazy. Like imo this is clearly a significant thing to factor in! Now the people who’s opinions I’ve leaned on to guide a lot of my decisions for 2.5 years are ignoring it, and I’m seeing lots of info about it. Am I just totally losing my mind or are people, even here, just over dealing with it and don’t want to think about it?
I also think our collective approach is going to blow up in our collective faces in a collectively huge way if the indications of long covid being a thing hold up and it is. Our healthcare system can’t handle that burden.
I am a long covid hawk and I would consider 1 in 100K infections causing long covid “not a thing.”
Wait wat, your position is not tautological? How dare you come in with a nuanced stance.
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I do think you are misinterpreting what others are posting because I’m not getting the “whatabout” vibe here. That said I also think you are misremembering what UP was like re OG covid. Plenty here whatabouted the flu and other illnesses back in February of 2020 and otherwise minimized it (although not the same posters that you are worried about now).
Yeah, I should be clear, I’m talking about posters who I felt like were on top of it then and I viewed them as experts, or experts among us, and have put a lot of value on their takes and now they’re not even weighing the long covid risks in.
I get that those risks are way different for me - like if I get long-lasting brain fog, I’m totally fucked, I can’t make a living. I’m just shook by people who have been on top of this most of the way not factoring that in. It makes me feel like I’m being gaslit, or gaslighting myself, or I don’t even know what.
Well it’s more complicated than that. Most likely you will have a distribution of symptoms:
1/A = fraction with severe long covid
1/B = fraction with kind of severe long covid
1/C = fraction with moderate long covid
1/D = fraction with mild long covid
1/E = fraction with no symptoms but some abnormalities on lab tests
1/F = fraction without long covid
Of course you could subdivide even further, but you get the idea. So for it to be a thing you need a combination of severity and likelihood that is large enough to matter. And it has to not resolve eventually, and there has to be nothing developed to treat it.
Don’t forget that we’ve had weird unexplained shit like chronic fatigue symptom forever. It’s entirely possible that something as innocuous as common colds cause that and we never realized it but now we are just paying more attention because of covid. That could still mean it’s a pretty low likelihood event for you personally.
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Right. I think it’s likely that we’ll end up being able to treat it at some point in the next 6 months to 5 years, but then who knows how quickly the treatment needs to be administered to reverse it? Maybe people who have already had it for a while are going to be screwed, or maybe they’ll end up being fine.
Yeah, this is something I’ve thought a lot about the last couple years and I wish there were some studies being conducted to gain a better understanding.
Yeah, in ~3-5 years perhaps, why? Not sure right now I want to bring kids into a world being ravaged by climate change and covid.
I’m not as bullish on treatment reversing existing damage. More hopefully of treatments that prevent it. I’m with CN in that I don’t really buy some of the scariest numerical headlines. I also think the words “long COVID” are being used to encompass a wide variety of things. Like a lingering cough for six months and debilitating brain fog are both “long COVID”.
All that said, the combination of
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- COVID waves that are coming more frequently with higher trough cases meaning increased exposure risk over time
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- The likelihood that vaccine protection wanes over time without boosters, the virus continuing to mutate in ways that make vaccines less effective, and the uncertainty over vaccines combatting long COVID.This is exacerbated by the lack of an ongoing vaccination program here in the US.
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- -studies showing potential viral persistence throughout the body
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- studies showing there is likely at least some cumulative risk from repeated COVID infections
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- The ongoing deterioration of our healthcare system, for COVID and other reasons
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Have me very concerned that we may end up with a really horrific outcome that society is being very cavalier about. I really think giving up like 50 years plus of public health gains is on the table here.
Also additional second order issues like we are going to massively fail at our response to next pandemic.
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Lucky everyone else has jobs where long-lasting brain fog wouldn’t be a problem I guess.
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Nice contribution, as you like to say
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How would it effect your job? It was a ridiculous statement but you go ahead a call me out for saying as much.
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I think you’re mostly right but that we are pretty much powerless as individuals to enact the type of collective response that is necessary, so it’s better to just try to find peace with the current situation without driving yourself fucking crazy.
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Or, a sufficient number of people going sufficiently fucking crazy is the impetus required for enacting the necessary collective response.
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As someone who played poker professionally I get exactly what CW is talking about.
He’s also voicing concerns and emotions he’s legitimately having, and you’re just being a jerk about it
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ok
I agree, I just view the whole situation as another reason why current society is toxic and why current leadership is not worth fighting for. In some ways I’m accelerating plans because Im not sure being in good health in 10-20 years is a reasonable expectation any more.
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Yeah I’m not saying it’ll reverse damage necessarily, but I think a lot of the symptoms may be due to ongoing inflammatory responses that can be stopped, thus alleviating symptoms. This seems to fit in line with some of the info emerging.
Right, one big issue is not having a clear definition. I get post viral coughs after almost every virus I catch, usually they last 4-6 weeks. I don’t consider that a big deal or long-anything.
Agreed, the last three bullet points in particular. I am cautiously optimistic that we’ll be able to keep updating boosters to at least keep catching back up to mutations.
Most people have jobs where taking an extra 60 seconds to figure something out or taking a 5-15 minute break as needed isn’t going to get them fired or have them lose pay. Like doctors and programmers and lawyers, all of which are represented here, clearly need their cognitive abilities, but generally have time to refocus. Like even if CN had ongoing brain fog and couldn’t be an ER doc, he could still be a doctor with a general practice.
They also likely have benefits that might give them some protection if they had to go on disability for a period of time.
Thank you.
I think there’s a non-zero chance that in 6 months, a year, five years, etc, society has an “oh shit” moment and things may change. Like if people are legitimately suffering serious long COVID effects after their Nth infection, they may at least not want their kids to go through that, and there may be more efforts to do something.
Or if after the Nth infection, we realize the mortality rate ticks up with each subsequent infection, people may start trying a lot harder to avoid that Nth infection.
Essentially, the more my worst fears are realized, the more likely society alters course at some point. Or maybe people are just like “Fuck it, live fast, die young.”
I can say from personal knowledge some very wealthy families are taking extreme precautions with their kids. There’s a very expensive kids day camp thing near me that is having all meals outside, requiring kids to mask with N95s inside, requiring frequent hand sanitizer usage, testing all employees once a week, and shutting the whole thing down for 7-10 days if anyone in the household of any employee or child tests positive.
It makes me wonder how many uber wealthy people are publicly calling for a return to normal while personally taking extreme precautions.