COVID-19: Chapter 10 - Mission Achomlished!

Is the this US feed or do you get Japanese commentary?

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US, courtesy of my annual one-week FuboTV trial and a good VPN.

Does it even air in Japan?

Used to be limited coverage on one of the network channels, but now restricted to a pay-for cable channel that I donā€™t get.

Huh. I would have guessed that the Japanese appetite for golf TV was more voracious than that, especially after whathisname won the Masterā€™s.

In more personal news, a close family friend performed in a concert (no masks, ldo, covid is over), and now is pozzed. Sheā€™s triple vaxxed, so this wouldnā€™t be soooooo bad, but my folks were at that concert, and they drove her (theyā€™re also triple vaxxed, but their booster was very early, and my dad has developed the sniffles). And itā€™s my momā€™s 70th this weekend, and we were pulling out all the stops. Good chance that all has to be put on hold, because Iā€™m not (re-)exposing my girls. I have a coworker complaining how his unvaxxed 4yo has now gotten the rona twice within 90 days. Where the fuck is that 2-5 yo vaccine?

New wave looks like itā€™s happening in Oregon at least. Weā€™re up about 40% week over week in the 7DMA. No idea how high itā€™ll go this time. We only know that itā€™s growing exponentially until itā€™s decaying exponentially, so it figures to explode quickly.

Golf isnā€™t as popular in Japan as many outside the country believe it to be. Nor is Matsuyama. Amazing golfer, but has the personality of a block of wood, even by Japanese standards.

The more charismatic Ryo Ishikawa is the golf hero everyone wanted here, but he flamed out long ago.

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So here we are four days after my high-schooler went back to school after spring break, which also corresponded with the end of their schoolā€™s mask mandate, and they have a severe (they say) sore throat. No fever and testing negative on the rapid test, but symptoms only started last night. Also, my son had a close contact on Monday and says he talked for half an hour, umasked, with the kid who tested positive. The bell could finally be tolling for my family.

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Until that one person makes a stand and then the entire plane has to be de boarded.

I donā€™t think this site has been posted here before:

Iā€™m not vouching for this data, but it seems to have some credibility.

Anyway, assuming the data is good (i.e., wastewater analysis is a better measure of true case rates than reported test results), I think there are a couple of conclusions you could draw from this graph:

  1. If you look at the correlation between observed cases and wastewater results, it looks like around Summer 2021 there was a break between the two measures. My interpretation of this is that, around this time, people stopped testing as much or transitioned to unrecorded at-home tests, so that the likelihood of a case being identified in the case count dropped. Thatā€™s bad, and consistent with the recent discussions here about how case numbers arenā€™t particularly meaningful anymore because of how many people are either testing at home or not testing at all.

  2. That being said, it looks like the trends in wastewater numbers are still tracking very well with the trend in official case rates. Which is very good news, because it suggests that we can still use changes in case rates as a good indication of virus activity.

  3. There doesnā€™t appear to be much of a recent increase in wastewater levels, which suggests that the worldwide surges arenā€™t (yet) hitting the U.S. Thereā€™s a very small bump if you focus on the last couple of weeks, but that bump seems very small in the context of the last several months or even early fall 2021.

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This afternoon, Iā€™ll probably be the last person on UP to get an mRNA vaccine.

Got a JNJ in April 2021 because it was by far the earliest available.

Got a JNJ booster in October 2021 because the state run clinics werenā€™t mixing and matching until a week after the CDC recommendation. Had a convention in early November that I really wanted to be boosted for and also fully recovered from, so just got the JNJ again.

Getting Moderna in about 5 hours.

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Congrats on becoming a cyborg

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Good luck. But at this point, as Iā€™m sure youā€™re aware, the overwhelmingly likely consequence of the ā€˜bell tollingā€™ is some mild colds for the LFS family.

I can understand JNJ #1, but I would have driven to another state or lied my way into Moderna booster for #2. It is not even clear that it would have made a difference but Iā€™ve been on team Moderna4Lyfe even when Pfizer was the hotness.

In any case it looks like the JNJs held, so thatā€™s all that matters.

Always bad news when an infection fucks up the immune cells themselves.

I mean itā€™s kind of contradictory. People are doing everything maskless nowadays. I donā€™t see a reason why being in a place where recirculated air is running through HEPA filters constantly is worse than eating at a restaurant or drinking at a bar.

Itā€™s also exchanged with outside air like 8 times an hour.

Apologies if this has been posted before:

Omicron XE. Covid continues to deliver with the GOAT branding.

Canā€™t wait for the XLT and lariat models to get released!

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