Bit of that, but mainly while I have no active desire to die I just philosophically don’t see dying as a big deal. A virus is a great way to take my dumb ass out because a more visceral threat would trigger a fight or flight response.
Regarding spreading, I’m lucky enough to be a relatively low spreader w/o major sacrifice (bit anti-social, already married, can reduce exposure to older family members from minimal to none, can work from home, etc.) so don’t have to have that debate w/ myself.
If I did I think I would up on the side of a few months is fine, but years is just not going to happen.
So what this tells us is that 0.2% is the floor for the fatality rate, which is ~ 10x worse that the regular flu. We’re still in the dark as to what the true rate is without knowing how many people got infected.
But assuming each age group was exposed at the same fraction, it’s 100 times more deadly to people 75+ than 18-44 year olds. Doesn’t that imply that focusing quarantining on high risk groups (65+, diabetics, etc) while relaxing restrictions on younger people could be a viable strategy?
If magically no one else ever dies from this in NYC after today because everyone has already been infected the fatality rate based on todays numbers would be .25%. Not everyone has been infected and more will be and will die.
It means all the fantasies you see out there of a fatality rate in the .03%(dumbass cali doctor video)-.3%(dumbass cali antibody test) range are probably impossible.
If people over 65 and high risk people are willing to have no contact with the u65 crowd for a year or so that might kind of work? Except as soon as they came out they would still not be immune and probably mowed down in short order once they came out to play unless you had a vaccine or there were zero active cases left.
From my perspective Boomers are some of the largest proponents for getting OPEN FOR BUSINESS. So while that plan in theory might work, in practice in USA #1 it has no chance of working.
I mean it will work fine for 65+ folks who do stay home. I’m willing to sacrifice a few idiot boomers for the economy. My Dad’s 72, voted for Trump and hasn’t left his house and yard in two months. And doesn’t plan on it for the next few months either.
So do you think a huge percentage of New Yorkers already have it? Or that there will be no more deaths even though a lot more people will get infected?
Nobody has any kind of a clue at this point how many people have been infected. All the talk of mortality rates has been guesswork and it’s going to be a very long time before we have a good answer. It’s looking like 0.2% is a lower bound.
You guys know the pull out method is not that safe right?
So many post withdrawals.
Anyways, not sure if this was previously presented but this NYT piece on Kushner and his volunteers sums up pretty much everything that is wrong with Trump and his administration. Favoritism, partisanship, ignorance masked by ego it’s all there.
Definitely recommend reading it. Many good things to pull out of it. Was cool when Judge Jeanie demanded 100,000 masks be sent to her favorite hospital. The process was totally obliterated by people trading on being close to Trump.