If magically no one else ever dies from this in NYC after today because everyone has already been infected the fatality rate based on todays numbers would be .25%. Not everyone has been infected and more will be and will die.
It means all the fantasies you see out there of a fatality rate in the .03%(dumbass cali doctor video)-.3%(dumbass cali antibody test) range are probably impossible.
If people over 65 and high risk people are willing to have no contact with the u65 crowd for a year or so that might kind of work? Except as soon as they came out they would still not be immune and probably mowed down in short order once they came out to play unless you had a vaccine or there were zero active cases left.
Yeah, you’d have to hope for herd immunity among youngs to protect the olds.
From my perspective Boomers are some of the largest proponents for getting OPEN FOR BUSINESS. So while that plan in theory might work, in practice in USA #1 it has no chance of working.
I mean it will work fine for 65+ folks who do stay home. I’m willing to sacrifice a few idiot boomers for the economy. My Dad’s 72, voted for Trump and hasn’t left his house and yard in two months. And doesn’t plan on it for the next few months either.
Cross posted from the spring thread…
You gotta remember that lots of olds need assistance daily if not weekly, so they’ll be exposed to it either way
was gonna repost here, thanks smacc
So do you think a huge percentage of New Yorkers already have it? Or that there will be no more deaths even though a lot more people will get infected?
Nobody has any kind of a clue at this point how many people have been infected. All the talk of mortality rates has been guesswork and it’s going to be a very long time before we have a good answer. It’s looking like 0.2% is a lower bound.
Bit harsh
Of course. They don’t work.
They just want everybody else to work so they can get their hair cut and complain about liberals at a greasy diner.
That’s true but maybe manageable with testing. Test those workers whose job it is to assist the elderly every single day.
You guys know the pull out method is not that safe right?
So many post withdrawals.
Anyways, not sure if this was previously presented but this NYT piece on Kushner and his volunteers sums up pretty much everything that is wrong with Trump and his administration. Favoritism, partisanship, ignorance masked by ego it’s all there.
Definitely recommend reading it. Many good things to pull out of it. Was cool when Judge Jeanie demanded 100,000 masks be sent to her favorite hospital. The process was totally obliterated by people trading on being close to Trump.
I hope they all get narrow focused corona.
They’re not wrong
Looks like Florida is ready to open. Only 30 new cases yesterday!
(headpoint.jpg Can’t have any CV cases if you don’t test)
Why is no one ever reporting new cases per test? Just telling us the # of new cases is so useless.
So just to continue playing your wet blanket on this, and again I think it’s probably more likely than not there’s something to the mutation thing.
“If there were to be something that influenced transmissibility, then the spike protein is the place I expect to find it,” said William Hanage, a Harvard epidemiologist who specializes in the evolution of infectious diseases.
But Hanage, like many other outside researchers, was not convinced this mutation actually affects the virus’ ability to infect people. Though the mutated form has become the dominant strain, that could be a consequence of a “founder effect,” Hanage said.
When the mutated version arrived in northern Italy, an older and more susceptible population was unable to contain it. “It’s the fox that got into the henhouse,” Hanage said.
Hanage pointed to Washington state, where the virus was recognized relatively early and public health measures have proved effective at reducing cases. Both strains were circulating in the state by mid-March — and now, cases of both strains appear to be falling at the same rate. If the European strain really were more transmissible, he would expect it to crowd out all other versions.
One prominent scientist, Stanley Perlman, a virologist at the University of Iowa who played a role in naming the coronavirus, said Tuesday that the Los Alamos study looks credible.
“It certainly looks like it is more readily transmissible. Viruses mutate to become more transmissible, but not generally to become more virulent (unless this enhances transmissibility),” Perlman said in an email.
David O’Connor, a virologist at the University of Wisconsin, said the most interesting feature of the Los Alamos research is that the same pattern was seen in multiple locations. But he said “significant caution is warranted” because the data was not collected randomly. The vast majority of SARS-CoV-2 genomes in online databases come from Europe and North America, meaning strains from these regions are overrepresented in research.
One criticism of the Los Alamos hypothesis is that there could be other explanations for why one strain of a virus becomes dominant. University of Wisconsin virologist Thomas Friedrich, who has spent years studying the evolution and transmission of the Zika virus, said a virus that makes its way into a highly susceptible population — for example, Europe in January — will spread like wildfire, quickly becoming the dominant strain in the region.
That doesn’t necessarily mean it picked up a mutation that boosts its ability to infect people. It could mean the virus just got lucky — and humans got caught off-guard.
When the Zika virus migrated across the Pacific to the Americas and began to cause birth defects, scientists thought it may have picked up some kind of “microcephaly mutation” right when the outbreak in the Americas began, Friedrich said.
Experiments showed the virus strain did carry a mutation, and was able to cause nerve tissue damage when it was injected into mouse brains. But when scientists were able to study other variants, they found many of them also had the ability to harm fetuses. What made the virus strain in the Americas so dangerous wasn’t the mutation, but that people on this side of the Pacific had no immunity.
Minimal Tuesday bump
Daily confirmed COVID hospital and nursing home deaths since peak (from Cuomo press conference)
April 8: 799
April 9: 777
April 10: 783
April 11: 758
April 12: 671
April 13: 778
April 14: 758
April 15: 606
April 16: 630
April 17: 540
April 18: 507
April 19: 478
April 20: 481
April 21: 474
April 22: 438
April 23: 422
April 24: 437
April 25: 367
April 26: 337
April 27: 335
April 28: 330
April 29: 306
April 30: 289
May 1: 299
May 2: 280
May 3: 226
May 4: 230
May 5: 232
