COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

Seems obvious we are going to “re-open” and then wave 2 will be pretty bad as we are at a much worse starting point than early March. There is no chance we keep doing this once the deaths/day number starts going down although we should obviously.

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I doubt there is a plan, but I’d expect that some places will relax isolation standards, some places will re-open schools, cases will increase, and once that hits a “secret number”, back on lock-down. Rinse and repeat until vaccination is available at scale, at which point we just groove on whoever gets it/dies from it forever more.

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Improve testing in both numbers and accuracy
Improve treatment in both efficacy and capacity
At some point when the above are successful enough slowly expand the range of allowable activity/commerce

People will still get sick and die, but at enough of a lower rate that health care systems won’t be overwhelmed.

Longer term whether some elements of what we consider “normal” life (like sporting events as we know them) ever return will depend on stuff like vaccines and herd immunity.

Lots of wildcards, like whether you can catch it twice, whether it can re-emerge in you after you’ve recovered, whether this thing mutates and gets worse. Probably lots of awful scenarios I haven’t thought of.

Seems like our range still goes from a return to relative normalcy in 18 months all the way to massive and permanent changes in civilization. With regard to the latter, it was inevitable this was going to happen at some point. Hopefully we DO have some real permanent changes so that when the real species killer arrives we are more protected and prepared.

Will they be taking requests?

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Don’t Stand So Close To Me seems like a no-brainer.

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Not getting the Keeed hate at all in this instance. This particular thread of posts originated with Churchill posting China’s defence of its early handling of the spread as “open, transparent and responsible”. Keeed countered that “great job all around” description by pointing out that on 14th Jan they fed the WHO info claiming there was no clear evidence of human to human transmission.

This led to Churchill going “Whaddabot Trump Tho?” and then Dogsballs basically goading Keeed into disputing some specific about what Trump knew when. This then culminated in a pile on of everyone going “YU defend Trump knobhead?”

The end of this trail of posts bears ~ no relation to its beginning. Like, it can be simultaneously true that Trump fucked up the response (a given seemingly accepted by all involved) and that China did the world no early favours. These things aren’t mutually exclusive.

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Checking in with group messages from FOX loving Father in Law

“ At the 6 minute w of video this doctor says they are intentionally overestimating virus deaths.”

“ The crying nurse that said she was sent into a virus patients room without a mask was fake. The nurse has not worked in over a year.”

“ Fake media pushing a false narrative. So sick of this crap.”

Sister in Law already is all over the CBS Italy footage for NY snafu as proof that it’s all made up.

I can’t even with this group thread.

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That pedophilia anthem is getting a bit too much play these days.

That’s a cool shot then… I thought even now that clear was hard to believe, especially with the hoaxes about Venice and all.

expected is what it is

Good god, can we move keed derails to another therad?

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Cop telling a guy he has to go into town instead of stay in his van (his only home) miles away from any other human being.

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It’s twice the standard recommended rate (which many people ignore in normal times anyway) and the grocery store is 1/10th of a mile away. You also left out that I gave extra cash to the last guy. It made it closer to 15%.

Keep in mind Instacart also charges me about a 5% service fee and a flat $3.99 fee and jacks up all the prices. So all told I’m paying at least a 20-25% premium if I give a 10% tip, and the person delivering is making probably $10-12 from them and $30-40 from me when it’s all said and done, with me up around a 25-30% premium.

I think that’s enough to put me in the top 1-5% of tippers on the app, and short of peeling off a c-note every time I don’t really know what to tell you. I’d be tempted to go to the store myself before doing that and it’s a terrifying thought for me.

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Maybe I missed it here, but apparently, Federal funding for testing sites was going to be cut off today, and was only extended because of pressure from Congress. WTF? Jared?

Seems like the Feds should be ramping up to thousands of sites with millions of tests per week, like they said they would. Instead, they’ve got 41 sites and 77k tests overall.

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Meh - feel like the cops is right here. You let one guy camp there and then more show up, and then you have a big problem. Better to just close all camp grounds to stop the problem before it can start. While the site was deserted other than him, we have no idea how many other people the cops have kicked out,

They are accepting cash? They go from house to house to house touching people’s money?

It’s not a campground. There are millions of acres of the middle of nowhere - practically half of Nevada - owned by the Bureau of Land Management (the people of the united states) where you can camp for free. There are no services at all. The campgrounds in BLM land are actually all closed and where this guy was was supposed to be open, but he didn’t want to argue with the cop. And even in “crowded” dispersed camping areas people don’t get anywhere near as close as houses are to each other in suburban neighborhoods with big yards.

Oh, and he was being sent to a park in the middle of a town. No chance at all that that would have led to less crowding.

And this is the guy’s only home. He’s living in his home, not camping anyway.

The cop was wrong.

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Ha. I should have quoted just the Home Depot part. Though sprinkler head ventilators don’t seem all that implausible atm.

A Trump supporter sent me a FB post claiming ventilators in pressure support mode are actually harming CV patients. I don’t know if that idea has popped up itt, I’m too far behind but maybe I’ll post it a little later.