I’m a lot less worried about Singapore than I am about South America and Africa. If it breaks out there it’s pretty much game. At that point it turns into a global pandemic full stop.
So the reported mortality rate in Wuhan is about 2.8% and the mortality rate outside of Wuhan is, so far, 0.2%. So that could either be underreporting of cases in Wuhan, or it takes a month to die (that’s how long it took to kill the 34-year-old doctor), or the numbers in Wuhan can’t be trusted at all. Or, I guess, the ex-Wuhan mainland China number might be bad. But I don’t think we will get a sense of how deadly it really is for a few weeks at least.
400 mm people locked down? That’s bonkers.
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Also, the virus was known about in Wuhan last November and I don’t know how many deaths there were.
I don’t know how we can calculate the mortality rate without a full understanding of the recovery rate, and the recovery rate is very low also. It seems only a small portion of identified cases right now are classified as either died or recovered. But we have no idea how some of these numbers are being calculated.
Basically, I agree with your point that it’s still going to be a while until we really know what’s up.
But if this thing had a 0.2% or lower mortality rate I think we could safely assume China wouldn’t be isolating 400 mm people.
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I think there’s an avalanche effect with cities going on lockdown that has more to do with officials acting based on being terrified of the gulag as much as acting based on the advice of actual public health experts.
Just another element of this where its impossible to know what is going on.
Scariest number itt. They are in a better position to know and this is how they are reacting.
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You only get to a position of making big-time government decisions in a place like Guangzhou or Wuhan if the people above you have enough dirt on you to have you sentenced to life in prison for corruption you are 100% guilty of should the need arise.
If you are a high level official in a big Chinese city right now, what is likely to happen to Wuhan officials and how you can minimize that outcome reaching you is going to be weighing heavily on your mind.
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I really don’t get things sometimes. So the doctor was punished for blowing the whistle and acting on this? And the Wuhan officials are being punished for not blowing the whistle and not acting fast enough on this?
That sure isn’t confusing.
The doctor was punished by local government for spreading rumors and proceeded to publicly release what had happened to him.
Its speculation at this point, but everyone’s best guess is that Wuhan government officials will be scapegoated–rightly or wrongly–because someone needs to be if the party doesn’t want to concede the PRC system is corrupt, fascist garbage.
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A threshold has been crossed where “I shut down our city at great economic cost in order to protect our residents” is a safer play for officials than “there’s insufficient evidence to demonstrate shutting down the city is necessary or beneficial” regardless of what information they have regarding the threat of the virus.
5% of the world population locked down, nbd
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You are 100% stocks, correct? Do you plan to just ride this out? You’re young enough for sure, but that’s some big stones. I’m like 65/35 or so and I’m going to ride it out, but I’m older and I’m more than a bit nervous. Of course, also worried for humanity and not just my retirement funds. But fuck me I do want to retire some day.
I was actually thinking about this today. I am 100% stocks, and obviously this is disconcerting. Maybe I’ll move some money to bonds, but I think that if I do that I will just leave it there; if I move my asset allocation to 80/20 then it’s there forever. I’m not going to play the move money in and out of the market game, I need to pick an asset allocation and just stick with it. Which makes me not want to put any money in bonds and just ride it out at 100% stocks because I hate the idea of buying bonds when 10 year treasuries are yielding 1.59%.
I don’t have either but is investing in governments sensible if you’re trying to hedge a large exposure to a pandemic?
I think so, 30 year US treasuries would skyrocket if this blows up and triggers a global recession. And all US treasury bonds would go up, but not as much. Especially if the US is hit much less than China, which seems likely.
I just use Vanguard total US bond market. This returned about 6% over the last 12 months, so not too bad. (But of course, garbage compared to being 100% stocks over the last year.) I also have a good amount of 3-7 year treasuries as part of my emergency fund.
I think I’m going to carry on any more discussion of this in the finance thread so as not to get this one too off track and piss people off.