the only reason the sports leagues shut down is because one of the NBA players tested positive and it would have spread to every player in the league if they hadn’t. it’s not like the owners were being altruistic, the NBA had their own interests in mind when they made the decision.
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What do you think the mortality rate is Suzzer?
yea I noticed the number of listed as critical went down sharply after being above 30 for weeks. Good news.
There is no “real” COVID-19 death rate, it depends on what the circumstances are vis a vis the health system. It’s somewhere between 0.5% and 1% given optimal treatment and not too aging a population, it’s 5%+ under worse conditions.
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It happens in the past and the survivors carry it in their genes. Whites could still get smallpox but it didn’t wipe them out like it did indigenous people in the new world.
It doesn’t matter because we’ll never know everyone who’s infected unless we randomly sample an entire population constantly for a year or something while some of them are getting it. What matters is something you can measure.
You can look at mortality rate for people tested. But that’s hard across countries because the level of testing is so disparate.
So you almost have to look at deaths per serious cases that show up at the hospital. Deaths vs. recoveries basically. But don’t count mild cases that just got tested but stayed home as a recovery.
The couple I’ve been following were finally released from Japanese hospital and returned to the UK yesterday. They had the flu, pneumonia and covid. All clear now.
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We could see devastation in rural areas. The smaller hospitals aren’t going to have enough capacity and won’t be able to transfer patients to the larger hospital because they’ll already have their hands full.
I think rural northern Canada could be particularly hit hard. Their only hope is that they are isolated enough that the virus doesn’t get there somehow.
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This is definitely going to be the new talking point from the derposphere once the extent of coronavirus problems become clear.
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It’s almost as if…as if…
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I’m assuming the broette lives in the US? I got a feeling the US is going to be the most impacted country with the highest # of cases and deaths by far, with the 2nd one not even close. I mean, other countries are on lock down or under major restrictions. Here, we have crowded airports, bars, beaches… We’re gonna get smashed with this
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Here’s a theory - maybe that weird 3-4 month cough everyone got is actually the mild version of COVID and gives us some herd immunity from the hardcore one - which mutated in Wuhan. Or keeps us out of the hospital when we get the hardcore one. Maybe the asymptomatic people who test positive are actually people who already got it.
@Ikioi - by any chance did a weird 3-4 week cough that most people got sweep through Japan between Nov. and Feb? Starts kinda mild then really kicks in after the first week? Mostly a lot of coughing at night?
Jinkies gang I think we might be onto a real mystery here.
One bummer is I don’t think we have anyone from Italy on this forum. You’d think though that anything which swept through the US and Japan this winter would also hit Europe.
Less deaths in South Korea as they isolated on a individual basis, not stay at home with family. Only country to have the resources to do this so far.
To clarify, if tested positive in S Korea, removed from home and population into government isolation with other carriers. Not told to saty home and infect older relatives ala China.
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Didn’t notice a widespread cough in Japan during that time, at least not where I am.
Well so much for that theory I guess.
We need to be studying Japan right now.
I wonder if life evolves like this on other planets - one species becomes intelligent but somehow fractures off into 1000s of different sects that look different, speak different languages and have different cultures. Or if we’re just a really weird snowflake.
Seems like it’s probably inevitable that when a successful species outgrows its environment it will migrate and that leads to variations in physical characteristics and culture, language etc.
Guns, Germs and Steel
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Not so sure about that. I have three working theories for why Japan seems to be doing better than most places:
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Built-in social distancing (bowing rather than handshaking; not touchy feely) and hygienic practices (masks, hand-washing & gargling) plus early school closures and cancellations have kept the virus at bay.
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Numbers are being severely under-reported and Japan is a ticking time bomb ready to explode.
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The virus isn’t as lethal as people are making it out to be, at least not in Japan.
I’m leaning toward some combination of 1 & 2.
Haha that you think anyone is showing up before congress who isn’t fired first.
My understanding is that you only evolve resistance if there is selective pressure. I.e. you only pass on your genes if you have an advantage over others in terms of surviving a virus.
A bunch of people catch a cold. Their kids aren’t going to acquire immunity.
You need generations of selective pressure to evolve resistance