Yeah secretly I catch myself hoping/thinking that Biden will win comfortably, because of things like 2022 midterms, and other indications that people are sick of CF DT. But I don’t let myself go too far down this path since I long ago gave up trying to predict what does or does not motivate the squishy middle to vote, or to stay home, or whatever.
I knew a guy in 2021 that voted for both Romney and Tammy Baldwin. I think the theory was “a little from column A, a little from column B”. He was highly educated and religious and pretty anti-gay.
I suspect a lot of people are motivated by shit even they don’t understand, like the cost of their last gas tank fill-up, or being mad at their wives, or feeling disrespected at work.
He definitely knew she was a lesbian. He could have been lying about his vote I suppose, but that was not my impression. I also think he was a “gridlock in DC is good” guy
This is correct, I guess I’m just thinking of the last two midterm cycles. It really seems like Dems do well when they campaign on stuff like healthcare and abortion.
Also, if 2024 becomes a referendum on immigration, Dems are toast. Biden’s going to piss off a big part of his base, he’s never going to win over Republicans because he’s never going to be as brutal as the Republicans want. Trump’s best play is to yell about the Border Invasion nonstop.
It’s very important for Democrats to not get complacent and think Biden has it in the bag. I actually think some of the polling and messaging is geared toward this - keeping the base riled up and afraid of a Trump presidency. Assuming a blowout would be very very bad for turnout.
I don’t get why Biden is considered a favorite. He’s polling either below, even, or a point above Trump and he needs a good 3 to 4 points to break even at the Electoral College.
What did the polls look like heading into the midterms? Isn’t there a lot of noise like likely voters and also disgruntled Democrats who will eventually vote for Biden?
Pretty favorable for Republicans. They definitely underperformed.
The problem is that Trump overperformed the polls twice. And most polls have him ahead, even before taking into account that Biden needs to win by 4 or 5 points nationally to be elected.
(I do think polls this far out are of little value though)
Biden better hope so.
No one really knows. It’s another high variance election.
I agree with you. I stand by my oversimplified belief that Dems win by identifying what voters feel desperate for, and say they’ll have the government give them that. The Rs are going to call them socialists no matter what they do.
Biden had it easy last time because what people craved most in 2020 was a return to stability. Biden is the walking personification of bland stability.
Biden might know or at least have a better idea than the rest of us. Some dude on a podcast told me the campaigns spend more on polling than all the major media outlets put together. And Biden’s people are confident. Ofc they might be confident and wrong and I expect it to be close and will be extremely anxious on election night, but until then I’m going to look for reasons not to step in front of a bus.