People find the guy entertaining. A follow is not the same as a vote. It’s a huge difference than him getting close to the same votes now as a convict. I’m as cynical as anyone, which is in part why I think him being a convict will move the needle.
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What numbers would need to be achieved for you to consider the election a blowout?
I’d say for starters if we’re not on pins and needles for 5 days lol. Tuesday night win would qualify for me
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I think we’ll see an easy Tuesday night win. I’ll sweat it with everyone all the same, but I just don’t see Don overcoming how many people won’t vote for a 34-time convict. People will stay home or vote third party.
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There are damn-near literally no Trump flag/signs/stickers here in rural Florida. It used to just be the norm. I even noticed the “Joe and the Hoe gotta go” sticker is gone from the truck that used to have it in the work parking lot. The 2nd amendment sticker threatening to kill you is still on their bumper though…
Anyway, probably means nothing.
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Seems like an ok standard to me.
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Too lenient, imo.
What qualifies as a blowout is actually an interesting question. After thinking about it for 2 minutes, here’s what I’ve got.
An election is a blowout if you couldn’t change the outcome by changing X number of votes. The votes that you could hypothetically change can be distributed among several states in any way of your choosing. But if you can’t change the electoral college winner by changing only X votes, then the election is a blowout.
What’s X? I don’t know. Gonna need to think longer about that. Would need to look at generally accepted blowouts and see how much vote changing you would need to flip. Anyone want to do that and report back? I suspect that because of the nature of electoral college, even in generally accepted blowouts, X may not be as large and one might initially think.
You’re a way superior Melk to me and additionally know the US electoral system way better, so I’ll bow out and leave this task to my betters :)
ETA: how far back could you conceivably look for inspiration? Are elections getting closer, such that a blowout before the 2000s aren’t really conceivable anymore?
are yall talking about an electoral college “blowout” or a popular vote “blowout”
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I think a blowout would be too big for anyone to take Trump’s bullshit “it was rigged” arguments seriously.
Trump could lose every state and a significant % of the base would still believe it was a deep conspiracy.
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Blowout is a tricky word with presidential elections.
When would you say was the last one?
The Washington, DC-based think tank Freedom House, which rates countries on freedom and democracy, says that of the countries it deems “free,” 43% have indicted current or former leaders since 2000. “That’s a pretty significant number, and so the prosecution of top leaders is not unusual in democracies,” Freedom House Executive Vice President Nicole Bibbins Sedaca told CNN. “That’s important for people to know, because quite often people have said this is turning the US into some sort of backwater or backwards country, but this is a sign of this system working, and it works in lots of other democracies.”
Surprise, surprise: major GOP talking point is bullshit
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I wish I had you guys’ optimism. Trump’s still the favorite.
Definitely Reagan/Mondale
HW/Dukkakis or Clinton/Dole?
I’d say Bush/Dukakis certainly qualifies.
I don’t think Clinton/Dole does, unless you also include Obama/McCain.
A Reagan/Mondale or Bush/Dukakis type blowout is literally impossible in today’s political climate. (And by that I mean EC-wise, by popular vote Bush/Dukakis was very close to Obama/McCain)
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I don’t doubt that he’ll lose the popular vote (again). What worries the heck out of me is the electoral college
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2012 is probably the closest. There hasn’t been a blowout since Dukakis I don’t think. 300 in the Electoral College is a blowout, especially in this construct. Popular vote is anything over 8 million dif (not sure what % would be).
You mean 2008? Wasn’t 2012 closer, both in EC and popular vote?