The Times calls it. It was a bullet that grazed Trump
This lack of clarity has left the issue unsettled and fueled speculation online about whether he was hit by a bullet or shrapnel — or perhaps something else.
But a detailed analysis of bullet trajectories, footage, photos and audio by The New York Times strongly suggests Mr. Trump was grazed by the first of eight bullets fired by the gunman, Thomas Crooks. Subsequent bullets wounded two rally goers and killed a third.
Just from a Bayesian perspective it is way more likely that his ear was struck by shrapnel than a bullet. There are a lot more speeds and trajectories that shrapnel could hit his ear and cause the level of damage we saw (minimal) than a bullet. Also, there were likely multiple pieces of shrapnel vs. one bullet.
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Donald Trump Truth Social 04:20 PM EST 07/26
Also Lindsey pens letter demanding Wray correct his testimony questioning Trump’s ear bullet.
Wouldn’t that mean the glass was behind him and would’ve had to travel back towards his ear? I’m not a physicist, but not sure it works that way either. The shard would’ve had to travel backwards with enough force to damage his ear
It depends on the side the shot came from. He turned his head right before the shot so it would need to have hit something on that side that kicked off a fragment that hit his ear. I’m not sure we’ll see any wide angle photo that shows possibly smashed objects that are likely culprits.
Most likely he was grazed by a bullet. We don’t have information saying otherwise, so fine. But in addition to the shrapnel possibility, it could be that no bullets or fragments of anything at all hit him. Maybe he reached for his ear as he heard a bullet go whizzing by and he scratched himself with a fingernail. Maybe one of the USSS agents caught him with a shoe or whatever as he was on the ground and they were trying to cover him up.