The only blowout that might happen is Trump having a diaper blowout.
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Seven polls have come out since conviction and not one had a shift more than 2 points and all are within margin of error.
Nobody gives a shit about his conviction.
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Yeah if you look at the 2020 results and sort states by margin of victory, you see that a Biden blowout is very improbable, even if something else happens (another conviction, n word tape, etc.)
There were only three states that went Trump that were 6% margin or under. True those are pretty big states: NC, FL, TX.
By my quick gorilla math if those three states went Biden then the electoral count would be 389 Biden, 149 Convicted Felon Trump (assuming he held everything else). To me thatās a blowout, but I wouldnāt die on that hill.
Plus, Biden winning TX is pretty much a pipe dream. FL too. NC, I could see Biden winning, I guess, under the right circumstances.
An N-word tape being released probably affects the vote of about 17 people nationwide.
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You mean heād lose 17 votes, right? RIGHT?
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Nobody called 1996 a blowout, but at no time in the election season was the outcome at all in doubt. I never met a single person who thought Dole had any chance at all. Conversely, Bush didnāt really pull away until relatively late in the year, Dukakis was ahead in the polls until the RNC Convention. I would say that 1984 was the only blowout in my lifetime and I donāt expect to see another barring something truly catastrophic. Sorry to say that Nov.5th is going to be a disconcerting day regardless of the outcome.
NC is a weird one, after 2008 (Obama won NC once), Iām surprised Dems got Georgia and AZ (albeit probably for the one time) before they got NC again; NC was supposed to go the way of VA since 2008. but itās just not budging there at all. Itās like Ohioizing.
I may have started this a few days ago. I donāt think itās going to be a blowout. But trump lost four years ago and he isnāt the same guy as 16
Heās not winning.
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But what about the blue wave midterm that no one saw coming, including the pollsters? We chalking that up 100% to Trump not being on the ticket?
Dems have been doing this weird thing where they campaign on abortion and healthcare in the midterms and then campaign on Orange Man Bad in the presidential campaign, itās endlessly frustrating.
What blue wave midterm?
The one that replaced the yuge red wave we were assured was going to happen and didnāt.
Got 1st of 3(maybe 4 of 1998 is included). Terrible sample size.
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I donāt know what to think about 2022. I think at the time many attributed it to: (1) some disgust over the election denying (leading up to 2022, there were many cases of the deniers losing court cases and being shown to be full of shit), and (2) abortion. And as you said Trump was not on the ballot.
The GOP did have some extra-shitty candidates, like Oz and Palin. However IIRC Dems did better than expected across the board in statewide races.
Short answer: I donāt know what happened in 2022 and whether it will translate to 2024.
Right, we donāt know that it will necessarily translate. But on balance itās still a much better sign than if the red wave had happened.
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Iāll agree that it was not a red wave, as many expected.
It was absolutely not a blue wave. You donāt lose the house in a blue wave election.
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Well, Obama talked alot about health care in his Presidential campaigns. I canāt remember if he won or lost though.