Sounds like it will most likely be this evening?
Judge still has to read jury instructions, and I think he said he wasnât going to do that until tomorrow.
If Litman is wrong a lot maybe thatâs a good thing this time
https://x.com/harrylitman/status/1795523404927504614
Over posting again. Break time
Hung jury seems pretty likely - a lot of scenarios where you could see a holdout or two either way.
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The witness store calledâŚ
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I do appreciate the update on the trial. Saves me from having to wade through the news.
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I canât see any chance theyâre leaning towards acquittal and there are only one or two holdouts for guilty. The other way, sure.
He was never getting acquitted and still isnât but hung jury has to be a fairly heavy favorite at this point. You know like several people here have been predicting for months.
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Disagree - same as you only need one MAGA sympathizer for a hung jury, you only need one person who thinks an acquittal hands the Presidency to him, and therefore absolutely will not vote for an acquittal.
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To clarify, what I was saying is that based on the evidence, I see zero chance there are 10-11 jurors voting for acquittal, period.
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Literally the trial didnât matter. This thing was going to end up with a guilty verdict or hung jury based on the jury selection.
Everyone has their minds made up on Trump in 2024.
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Also I would say, as someone who has done a couple of jury trials in criminal cases, the trial itself matters way less than jury selection.
If we got 12 non-MAGA jurors this thing will be a slam dunk guilty verdict. Otherwise it will be a long deliberation and hung jury. If we see the deliberation drag on itâs over for team LOLLAWBRO.
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Its a meme, but memes are good because they are true:
Itâll probably be a hung jury (total exoneration).
If not, itâll be a guilty verdict overturned on appeal (total exoneration).
If not, itâll be a guilty verdict with a sentence of a stern admonishment and huge monetary fine (total exoneration).
And if there is by some stretch a huge fine levied, itâll be reduced to a meaningless amount on appeal, and still probably wonât ever get paid (total exoneration).
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Everyone in this forum other than like 2 guys assumes it will be a hung jury, but boy are those two guys gonna get referred to as broad swath and get a big laughing at when we find out itâs a hung jury.
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Just wait til they take their victory lap and 90% of UP looks like morons. If this was UP parimutual betting I would 100% be on the guilty side bc as you point out the vast majority here expect a hung jury so juicy odds on the guilty verdict side.
This may be a really stupid question, but are there laws against a juror placing a bet on of these sites that offers action and then forcing a hung jury?
Where can I place a bet on hung jury?
I thought there were âWill Trump be found guilty in this case?â type markets. I donât know the details but presumably a hung jury would be settled as a âNoâ, in which case a juror could force that. Maybe Iâm wrong and there are no such markets.
I would take guilty on the felony. What are fair odds? I guess we need to see if anyone has them. I would take +150 and be happy for up to 100 risk. That may be way off from market price though.