And I don’t understand why this isn’t being treated as a much bigger deal.
There are basically two options:
- The polling is complete nonsense
- Young people really are going Trumpy
I feel like either one should be a massive story.
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There’s been “crosstab truthers” on twitter for the past two months or so, but that’s the only people covering it.
There’s also been some weird things in the Black vote, with stuff like Trump getting 38% in Detroit and 33% of black people in Michigan.
I wonder if there’s been some super double secret 4chan plan for young kids to completely fuck up polling by answering with pure bullshit.
If this country elects Trump again while knowing what happened the first time, we’re just too stupid to live. We would have stuck our tongue in a light socket or fallen into a manhole or something anyway.
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I’m too busy over the next few days to dive deep into the numbers, but the first thing I would do is look at the cross tabs for young people in non-presidential races.
I also have my doubts that 4channers and Roganbros actually vote.
Taking this as an opportunity to follow-up with those friends as I realize it’s something we haven’t discussed in nearly 5 years since we’ve moved apart. Can’t seem to recall exactly what problem they were having, but I remember it was getting the initial part setup. They actually might be close to the original guidelines for forgiveness now!
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I think this is more likely than youngsters like trump. I mean come on, he’s a complete wanker unless you’re a racist twat in your twenties. (which i’m sure a number are but they are easily outweighed by the ones who don’t give a shit and think telling poll peeps Trump is #1 is a giggle.)
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We really debating if the most socially liberal generation ever favours Donald Trump by 20 points!? If the poll said won’t vote Biden ok but favours trump. Literally 0% this poll is accurate.
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There are two absolute truths. 1. A record voter turnout equals a Biden win. 2. A Biden win means Trump is standing trial and getting convicted of crimes. Everything else is just superfluous noise
I disagree with #2.
Right - I think they are answering in a way right now because they hate many of Biden’s positions and saying Trump is the only way to express that in polls. I see no way most of them actually vote Trump - the bigger danger is that they just stay home, or vote some stupid third party.
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I have a poorly supported theory that as cultural influence moves from one’s friends to Tiktok, the distribution of previously reliable D voting blocks becomes more random. In the past, people would become Democrats because the people around them are Democrats. With social media, the cultural influence a person experiences is more random. I don’t think there is much Trump support on Tiktok, but there is support for conservative values like LGBT hate. I also think Facebook gets a lot more use by Millennials than Unstuck thinks
A better supported theory is that Trump leaning millennials are more enthusiastic, which means likely voter screens weed out Biden leaners and produce numbers favorable to Trump even if support for Trump remains low in terms of all young voters.
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I think a much more likely explanation is polls are wrong about 1 in 20 times. This is that.
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It’s not just one poll. It’s systematic.
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Exit polling of millinials/gen x had Dems barely winning in 2022 when Dems overall did quite well. I think you guys are really underestimating how much hate there is for Biden and Dems amongst young people.
It’s also possible I live in Oklahoma and am surrounded by morons and that is coloring my view. My law partner had a family law client in today that spent a long time complaing about their child being bullied and called slurs like “democrat” because they are “interested in social justice”.
Yes thats anecdotal but I think in general UP is conflating young people being very different nowadays from 30 years ago with young people liking Dems en masse. They don’t.
Hell as near as I can tell no one likes Dems really. Meanwhile Trumpism is edgy online and a literal cult.
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Maybe Biden is just waiting until after the convention to drop a ceasefire agreement as an October surprise.
You are claiming multiple polls show youth favour Trump by 20 points?
By 20? Probably not, but there are multiple polls suggesting a 20-point shift, with Trump leading several.
Not for youth