Many thanks for the MGM tip - worked like a charm.
For NY FanDuel users: Spread the Love promo for Knicks/Pelicans Thursday night. Spread increases 1 pt for every 500 wagers. Currently Knicks +12.5. Max $50. -110.
ETA: Up to +31.5 less than an hour later, so this will be free money when all is said and done. Didn’t want to commit to saying that earlier since I wasn’t sure how high it would get being NY-only.
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+78.5 now, nice little freebie.
The Athletic released their first NFL mock draft this morning. Had Ekwonu going #1. DK odds dropped from 100/1 to 6/1 in about 6 hours lol.
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let me guess without looking, a run grader who can’t pass block they’re gonna take in the top 5, just like a ton of OT busts drafted up that high.
I didn’t look at any film of his but my god at drafting OT that high bust rate is as bad as QB’s up there in what the last 20 years. Value just isn’t there vs EDGE (assuming athletic one).
He allowed 25 pressures and 7 sacks last season. wait, #1 OT pick gave up 7???
I put two $20 bets on him at +10,000. Hoping to cash one out and freeroll the other, but no cashout offer as of now.
Tony Mandarich is a famous bust because he was selected in a particularly strong top 5 draft year, but other than that is there real evidence that high OT picks bust more than other picks? It seems like the NFL always has a lot of huge busts near the top of the draft. Admittedly I haven’t paid much attention to the NFL in a while so this may have changed.
If youre looking for a good value gamble, DK has Derrick Henry most rushing yards divisional weekend at +400. Same bet is +125 on FD, +125 on MGM, and +180 on CZR, heavy favorite on all three of those sites.
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The hit rate on OT is pretty good actually. There’s been some pretty high profile busts but the average top 10 OT is a solid starter if not pro-bowler. I have no idea about this pick. This draft seems unusually shitty all over the board. Even the top 2 edge rushers come with some questions. Not having a good left tackle though is usually a fatal flaw.
you’re wrong
top 5 OT picks last 20 years
2002–Mike Williams total bust
2004–Robert Gallery total bust at tackle, was a guard for awhile
2006–dbrickashaw-- not a star but fine
2007–Joe Thomas stud
Levi Brown–well he got a 2nd contract
2008–Jake Long first overall, above avg player but not a omg star
2009–Jason Smith hilarious bust
2010–Trent Williams stud in the everyone was a stud year
2012–Matt Kalil had one good season then was out of the league pretty quick
2013–Fisher/Jockel/Lane Johnson one good one okay one bad
2014–Greg Robinson absolutely terrible
2015–Scherff–obviously a hit but he’s a guard
2020–andrew thomas LOL GETTLEMAN
missed a few at 6, similar ranges but you get the point, OT rate isn’t good at all doubt it’s better than QB
There’s also no real difference in left tackle and right tackle
Isn’t it all relative though? Do top 5 picks do better than that when they’re QBs or RBs or other positions?
If positions like QB and OT have a higher bust rate it’s likely because teams are reaching because not having a starter grade player is a huge problem and it’s a lot harder to find fill in guys like you can at other positions. Also the transition from college to the NFL is tougher for these positions than others.
Also, looking at some of those same drafts also early in the first round.
2002 - 7. Bryant McKinnie - Pro Bowl
2008 - 12. Ryan Clady & 15. Brandon Albert - Pro Bowl
2010 - 6. Russell Okung - Pro Bowl
2011 - 9. Tyron Smith - Pro Bowl
2014 - 6. Jake Matthews, 11. Taylor Lewan - Pro Bowl
2016 - 6. Ronnie Staley, 13. Laremy Tunsil - Pro Bowl
No draft pick is ever a sure thing, and positional value, which OT definitely has a lot of, weighs heavily on what positions get drafted at the top of round 1.
There’s an NFL non-gameday thread.
Got $100 on Henry +400 and $30 on Mixon +900. Lines have now moved to +175 and +600 respectively.
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I almost put a little on Mixon as well but just rode with Henry. Hopefully he goes off.
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I took a closer look at this strange policy as I realized that it could make any sufficiently long odds bet +EV. It turns out that they only honor it up tp -1100. Still a rate of 1 reward credit per 5 dollars “potential profit” comes out to 2% cash back at -1100. That will cut the vig in half in a lot of cases.
Henry is still +325 on Bovada so I bet some there.
FD looks like they’re moving to free bets instead of site credit. Sucks, but was fun while it lasted.
What’s the difference? Did site credit not expire?
I think site credit would expire but they treated site credit like cash.
$1000 balance with a winning $50 +100 bet in site credit = $1100
$1000 balance with a winning $50 +100 bet on a free bet = $1050