Betting on Politics

I know there used to be a thread, but I don’t think it survived the move.

I thought I’d revive it and post a few of the most absurd (imo) current lines on Predictit.

Trump to win the popular vote @ $0.26-0.27.

Hillary Clinton to run in 2020 @ $0.10-0.11

James Comey to face federal charges by 12/31/2019 @ $0.17-0.19

Those all seem like pretty clear LOL NO’s to me.

Who else is on Predictit or otherwise betting on politics?

Any other absurd lines I’m missing or anyone disagree with my picks?

Wtf how do I shovel money against Hillary running in 2020.

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I’ve never put money on predictit but God those lines make me want to. Is there enough volume that those are actual lines that can be bet on, or would a single max bet move it?

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The rake and withdrawl fees make some of these lines not worth it, unfortunately. The James Comey one is still a solid value bet imo. I also think the “Will Trump Be Re-Elected” line is overvalued and the “Will Trump Be Impeached” line is undervalued.

There is plenty of room to make max size bets on predictit without moving the lines much. 10% of profit on profitable trades and 5% on withdrawal isn’t that big of a deal rake wise. Particularly when there’s free value lying all over the place.

I might be biased though because I’m up 200% since the midterms lol.

I tend to agree that there are enough absurd lines that the fees are easily worth it.

Regarding the max bet question. Some markets have plenty of liquidity to absorb a max bet, some might require some patience placing a limit order if you aren’t willing to accept moving the line a few cents.

I’m not use to the lines stated that way. Do I read $0.10 as a 10% chance.

Yes. You could bet on it happening and get 10:1 or you could bet against it and get the opposite basically.

Jesus that is unreal. I’d say Clinton running is like 2000:1 or something.

To be clear all of these exist right now:

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5757/Will-Tulsi-Gabbard-participate-in-Sept-12-13-Democratic-debate

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5143/Will-a-federal-charge-against-James-Comey-be-confirmed-by-December-31,-2019

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5142/Will-a-federal-charge-against-Hillary-Clinton-be-confirmed-by-December-31,-2019

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5141/Will-a-federal-charge-against-Andrew-McCabe-be-confirmed-by-December-31,-2019

The top one has already not happened, and the remaining 3 would have already happened if they were going to.

Kind of a lotto ticket but I think Kamala to win president is very oversold and undervalued at 6c. She was as high as 18c in July and is currently 4c lower than Yang, lol. With Biden continuing to implode she could easily get back to 10+ especially with a strong debate performance.

Holy shit McCabe market shot up to 45c?!?!?!

Most of the value on predictit comes from idiots betting what they think are sure things. I guarantee somewhere in the conspiracy theory derposphere someone is pushing the ‘McCabe about to be charged’ angle hard.

Yeah comments are full of Qtards but see the nyt article, doesn’t appear to be complete bs

My whole predictit roll is locked onto the Dem Primary right now. The other side of it is ‘longshots’ that are very likely to improve vs the field. The odds are great. You could buy Warren for like .06 back in May. I’ve gotten into Yang at .04, out at .15, back in at .07, and it’s back up to .11. The Yang Gang is nothing if not enthusiastic lol. Their enthusiasm is what the bet is about not his chances of winning the primary.

The problem with the smaller bets is that the spread is brutal so you have to move in and out with limit orders that take some time to fill. Makes it a huge pain to get money in and out.

So let’s say we buy $100 worth of shares at $.90 and we bing it. Now we have $111 in our account. Free money! But then there’s the 10% rake on profits, which means we have $109.90. Still good. And then there’s the 5% fee on withdrawals, this is the real monster. Now we have $104.40, for a profit of $4.40.

I guess not bad? But as rational men we have to consider the possibility that sometimes we’re wrong and a black swan event occurs. Let’s suppose there’s actually a 1% chance that Hillary throws her hat in the ring. Now the EV calculation is (104.40*.99)-(100*.01) = 102.36, it’s a +$2.36 expectation value. On a $100 dollar bet where the market is off by 8% we made a whopping $2.36 and consider that we could have just invested the money for several months instead.

Oh, also Predictit totally reports your earnings to the IRS so if you’re really moving big sums of money around you’ll have to pay taxes on it.

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Predictit doesn’t let you bet enough money to make it worth the trouble. The rake is definitely beatable for bragging rights though lol.

Somebody help me out on the Gabbard debate market.

She still needs 2 polls right?

And there is now a confirmed qualifying national poll coming out tomorrow morning. And another coming out this week, but unknown if it will come out before tomorrow night’s deadline. And she needs to bink the whole parlay?

Just trying to see if I’m missing anything because this market is going a bit crazy.

Yes. This market is bonkers right now.