Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

Ugh I don’t have a wallet or anything set up, so that’s a no go for me.

It’s possible your card would work but it’s like 6% juice

Any juice on the cashout?

Not on BTC, other than the ~.5% it will cost you to exchange to USD and I would recommend using that because checks are a huge slow pain in the ass, not sure if they juice them.

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These betting markets are the only thing keeping me from popping the champagne right now. Biden +175 right now is absolute insanity. I have it at like -900.

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WI +135 seems good?

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All the lines on Bovada seem very good:

WI +135
MI +170
PA +230

Even GA +165 is decent value.

And AZ is still -1000 which is free.

Does not compute. Biden is a dog in all those and a favorite in AZ?

I had a huge night. Just cashed out.

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you didn’t factor banana republic dictator and court in your odds

You don’t think Biden is favored?

he said -900 that was what I was referencing

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The ridic thing about all this shit is I only had WI +2 and am still live for getting everything right* and now barely being off in that state could be the difference and slaughter all of my biden bets which means I got crushed anyway. God I hate politics.

*I said MT/TX would lose majority of the time don’t @ me. TX was just like 40 or so.

Why’d you only have WI +2? What were you adjusting away from the polls based on?

WI is very rural +8 rural

Among other things, I adjusted all polls with urban/rural divide numbers due to the super high turnout projections. meant I never bet dem on wisconsin and tried to get people away from dems in ohio but I should’ve been more vocal about that.

What do you mean, 8% more rural than the average state?

errr sorry +8 was a made up number from my brain

it’s from here on 538

Wisconsin is in the wrong column

it’s also why Texas was a good play, but was never going to hit half the time. Arizona too.

Florida just has too many cubans so it’s not a blanket adjustment of course. Montana is just a weird state. Bunch of states dont’ make any sense of course so it’s just a tool.

edit–meant it for voting purposes where they’re strong anti this forum guys before you all @ me

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Got some +340 on Biden to win GA and +120 on Biden to win MI a few hours ago.

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Anyone else bet the max on Kanye <200k votes? :smiley:

So MAGA chuds will be paying my rent for the next two months. Feels good, man.

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