We as a society need to stop pretending that people with large piles of money are smart. There’s a TON of Qanon dipshits on PI who will throw money at terrible political prop bets. OFC they’re going to max out the “Will Biden resign” markets just like they maxed out the “Will Hillary die of Parkinson’s” in 2016.
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Unless something drastically changed in the past few days this is not true for pop vote winner. Polymarket was significantly lighter on Kamala as a favorite compared to offshore books.
I think it’s wrong to assume polymarket is efficient, it is dominated by people in a space that tends to lean right wing/wannabe libertarian.
Bingo
Is this limited to certain states or accounts? I’m not seeing it anywhere in the app.
Trump was a pretty big underdog in 2016 and 2020 in all the markets. They didnt become a gofundme in 2024.
The entire gambling business is mostly dominated by right wing/wannabe libertarians. I obv don’t think polymarket and other presidential betting markets are super efficient as I wouldn’t be making bets on them but I think they are far more efficent than some are giving credence too, namely those claiming 95%+ pop vote win for Kamala or all the free money talk in a billion dollar market.
If someone isn’t familiar with a particular market of this size, I think its much better to start with the assumption that there is something rational behind these particular moves that they aren’t aware of than the assumption that it’s trumpers betting for daddy. I think if they did that, they’d be correct a lot more of the time.
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True, it became one right around 4 days after election day 2020.
Can’t figure out where or what the no shade is directed at in this post???
I don’t see that sort of restriction, but I did read that they were not rolling it out to everyone yet. It was in my notifications this morning.
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If someone isn’t familiar with a particular market of this size, I think its much better to start with the assumption that there is something rational behind these particular moves that they aren’t aware of than the assumption that it’s trumpers betting for daddy. I think if they did that, they’d be correct a lot more of the time.
This.
70% of the UK population would vote Kamala but betfair still has trump as a decent favorite, not too far off from polymarket
I mean there was this one guy who put 40M on Trump that completely changed the odds. Betfair followed.
I just didn’t want Oscark to think I was calling him out.
Polymarket currently has Trump 42% to win popular vote. 47% for record vote. Are these two negatively correlated?
Bet365
DT 1.47
KH 2.80
!!
(This has gone from Harris 1.90 to 2.8 steadily in about last 2 months ive been watching it)
Popular vote
DT 2.62
KH 1.50
Seems a little conspiratorial, the more straightforward explanation is that tons and tons of Americans use Polymarket. It’s crypto. There’s no KYC or anything. You just chuck on a VPN and you’re good to go.
True, but if Trump loses, it’s pretty much guaranteed they’ll use betting markets like they used crowd sizes as some sort of rationale as to why the election was rigged. While completely memory-holing 2016.
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That was always gonna happen PM or not.
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Elon has been going hard on early turnout stuff too.