Betting on Politics: Predictit is NOT Dead

This is why I just bought the NOs instead for the cabinet picks

It’s pretty quick

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well it’s might and the difference in house seats is only one or two, though I guess it’s a 4 seat margin in people literally there for whatever reasons or contested stuff still going on?

In other words, I’m not jumping in at 50 on NO’s here. Nitting it up but I like some of the 8x yes’s a lot better. Even if R’s try to block a lot of shit, they’re gonna let a few positions sail through simply due to importance or they’re really not against them that much.

I meant NOs on the current Trump admin members. Instead of having to sweat the confirmations for the Biden picks

ah, makes sense but I’m hoping they go up, NEVER GIVE UP TRUMPERS

Best tweet is from the person saying they found out the market was settled when they logged on TODAY to bet MORE on Trump.

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https://twitter.com/RedbudCalhoun/status/1340054167390474240

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Kind of want to buy the cabinet no’s but also don’t want to tie up my money until March. Or do those settle the no’s at least after inauguration?

I would imagine that if it’s “Secretary of State is Person X on March 15” or whatever, that it wouldn’t settle until that date.

There is at least a plausible scenario where everyone dies and it’s President Grassley and he appoints Pompeo back to the position by that date.

It’s at least more likely than Trump winning Wisconsin.

SoS market is only Feb 15th for some reason, maxed that one first.

Ok, valid point. Not going to tie up thousands of dollars until march then for literally tens of dollars, even if the return is theoretically really good compared to bank interest.

I’m gonna cost myself money here as I’m slightly gambling the other strat to flip out later because it’ll be hard to keep pounding it under 5c till then but I’m sure you could sell those NO’s for 98 or 99 if they’re not in office after inauguration if you wanted to only be in for a month.

though warren/klob are already 99’s–this is a different era of PI, usually those things would still be 97.

How does PI work realized gains for tax purposes? I want to make sure I’m realizing my gains this year and not next. If I roll over money into new markets that won’t settle till after 12/31, is there any impact?

I presume you’d have to sell this year to get your gains on those unsettled markets this year for tax purposes otherwise they’d go on the form next year.

https://twitter.com/Gizmocat246/status/1340099909471641600

https://twitter.com/Gizmocat246/status/1340100642099085315

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https://twitter.com/MAGAsizeMe/status/1339978695424008194

couldn’t agree more, I demand "will trump be inaugurated in jan 20th markets now!!!

and the 19th, 21st, 22nd, etc they won’t know

like hillary just put his name in everything it doesn’t matter how much sense or not it makes

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I was going to say that someone in charge at PI has to have some kind conscious to not be opening markets like “who will be potus on 1/21”, but then realized its more or less the same thing for the like 20 cabinet markets. They don’t have to be what they are, a more “responsible” wording would be “who will be the cabinet member in the Biden administration” so yeah.

If I was in charge there I’d burn the place down, fuck it. “will DJT be indicted on any crime in 2021” “will Don Jr go to rehab in 2021” “number of months Steve Bannon is sentenced to in 2021” “number of times Eric Trump is punched in the face in 2021”

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God, I cannot get enough of the MAGA Karens threatening to sue PI. lolz.

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The ridic thing is that there’s things going on politically they’re ignoring

The old days would’ve had stimulus bill props.

2024 election bets should’ve been up before they paid out the 2020 ones.

No 2024 GOP nominee market up is inexcusable.