If I remember correctly, the POTUS is sworn in at exactly noon even if the oath is taken later. Remember when that judge screwed up Obama’s oath and they had to do it again?
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Ya… so which states have Bovada not paid out for yet? If they’ve paid out states totaling 270 EV don’t see how they can argue against paying out for the winner anymore.
they’ve only paid out certified states or blowouts (for the most part)
which is better than everywhere else I’m in
There definitely needs to be a PredictIt gimmick that pops into threads to confirm old news from weeks before. Or maybe we can replace pony references.
They paid AZ about 30 minutes after Trump’s last lawsuit was dismissed.
Bonuses back on over here, where the free money at?
Update: deplorable backed out of the $1,000 bet because he “feels sorry for me and is concerned for my well being”. My original comment I typod “1/20/202 at 12:01pm” and he snap screen shotted that and was using the date as his “gotcha”. Never actually intended to make the bet, as I was expecting. Lol me.
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I’m maxed in the Biden by 10K to 12.5K market at an avg of 18c. It’s basically a bet on Trump to ask for a recount, which is available to him for free.
Would be a shame if his name got leaked out
Not sure I love it. 18c seems pretty close to the recount being priced in to me. I personally think it’s under 18% chance a machine recount ends up in that bracket. I guess you will probably be fine dumping right after recount announcement tho.
Yeah I’m pretty sure as soon as they announce it, it’ll shoot back up to at least 50c. Given that the audit was in that range, it seems fairly likely that it would end up in that range.
Problem is every bettor in that market knows the recount will be announced and I disagree about the hand recount number being close to as likely as the machine recount number.
Also think the official Kemp certification after that disaster presser might push the market way lower for a better entry.
I guess we’ll see!
I entered after the presser, I suppose it could go even lower but we’ll see.
I’m not sure the recount is priced in, I mean you’re attributing a degree of rationality to that market that I don’t think exists.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1329940438598475776
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1329940615774277632
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nate silver is so f’ing stupid it’s unreal but he can’t let it go that those same idiots are smarter than he is with election betting so
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“Nate does punditry” is amazing, you would think he could occasionally stumble on a decent take, but no, literally never.
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Not sure if joking or being too literal.
Penny stonks are basically momentum pyramid schemes.
The EC Margin of Victory market continues to be hilarious. GOP by 280+ is up to $0.07 right now.
Trump to win popular vote is up to $0.10 YES.
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My sister is not a gambler and had never seen predictit until the other night when I explained how it worked and showed her some markets, specifically the ec margin of victory. She said it’s the most insane thing she’s ever seen and shouldn’t be allowed, especially since California etc settled. 280+ gop means flipping CA or IL and NY etc.
And on that note I’m officially fucking tilted after seeing an outsider’s perspective. This shit turned from interesting and cute real fast for me. There’s just no honest working definition of “win” and “election” and a few other words where this shit hasnt qualified.