Betting on Politics: Predictit is Dead

If you don’t already have money laying on there, or don’t want to put it on there for other things, then no it’s not worth it for this market. The fees on withdrawals will more than eat up the profits.

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I pulled some of my shares out of the Tulsi market at .98 and plowed them into the Comey market, so I’m part of the problem. Like for real, that market is absurd after today’s report from the DoJ.

Crushed my Democrat Primary draft

Me:
Liz
Bernie
Biden
Amy
Gabbert
Williamson
Bullock
Hilldawg

Opponent:
Harris
Pete
Castro
Yang
Booker
Steyer
Beeto
Michelle Obama

We put up $50 each, $20 to the person who has the nominee and then split the $80 proportionally among delegates. I really didn’t want Biden but with him available on the fifth pick I had no choice.

How in the hell

My dude hates the socialism and doesn’t think Commies like Liz and Bernie can win. And then (correctly imo) completely dismisses Joe as a serious candidate.

Lol apparently your guy hates money even more than socialism.

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It is ironic that he is so dead set on redistributing his money

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When is the Texas primary? Beto seems like a good value pick for delegates if you think he’ll still be in at that point.

Don’t think Beeto is the type of candidate that will stick around and try to grub for delegates, Jonad-style. He’s going to drop out once he humiliates himself a little more and finishes seventh or eighth in Iowa.

Guy like Yang is a better delegate play, he will hang around and maybe grab some delegates.

And the little polling that has been done on Texas had Beto well behind.

Hillary @ .11 to run in 2020. Seems crazy. … basically 10% on your money if you tie up $850 for a year?

How much $ do large traders have on PI? Are there folks with six figure investments or does the cap make that less likely?

there was a lot of free money in Bishop last night. people still freak out every time they see the D has the lead in the early voting, even if its in a historically R district. McCready got up to 79c at one point.

The fee structure makes so that you really can’t capitalize on a lot of these “free money” bets, see my example above.

McCready (the D candidate) was trading between 60-75c for most of the night.

Bishop (the R candidate) was trading between 25-40c most of the night. even after fees that is still plenty of free money.

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Sure. I’m talking about the can’t miss bets like Hillary at .10 and stuff like that.

In my mind, the withdrawal fee is a sunk cost if the money is already on there. So I’m not sure I exactly agree with your example, but I agree with the sentiment that the lines are not as profitable as it looks at first glance.

Wow I just got cucked in McCabe market

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Comey market still juicy tho. If they would just pay out my Tulsi bet I’ma throw more money at it.

So is everyone conceding defeat in the McCabe market?

Damn I wish I had more liquidity right now. The speaking time markets are hilarious.