Betting on Politics: Predictit is Dead

58c mccabe lmao

Betfair has

For anyone unfamiliar with exchanges and/or lolEuro decimal odds, the blue column is what you can back at, the pink what you can lay at; prices shown are odds +1, so evens would be shown as 2.0 (ie 1/1 +1), £ figures are the amount available to get instantly matched.

Fees are 5% on winnings (if you win, otherwise 0).

How do these compare with PredictIt?

Oh boy, Gabbard can still hit runner-runner:

Team Tulsi drawing to the PB&J vs a made straight


Swing and a miss in both polls for both Gabbard and Steyer.

I almost wish Gabbard could make a little run up to 5%ish because there would a lot of money fading delusional tulsi fans.

Warren at .33, Biden at .26. This market is completely unmoored from polling.

Steyer is at .11 to make the debate? I don’t see how that’s possible.

I’m holding long both. Thinking about selling a bit of Warren and topping off my Biden. I’ve held Warren since 0.12.

All objective indications are that Biden is going to benefit as much or more than anyone else when people start dropping out.

I’m not sure that’s true. The typical Biden supporter doesn’t seem to be very checked in, whereas the supporters of the candidates with lower numbers are VERY checked in (as evidenced by their support of a low name recognition candidate). I suspect Warren/Bernie/Yang/Pete have a lot more to gain from drop outs than Biden.

I hope you’re right, and it seems to be the prevailing thought, but the second choice polling I’ve seen indicates otherwise.

You mean the part where Biden and Bernie are the most common second choice for each others supporters? Yeah that’s skewing the second choice polling quite a bit. The reality is a majority of voters haven’t even begun paying attention to the primary yet… and honestly they’ve got a point.

Yes, but not just Bernie and Biden supporters. I think as people drop out, their supporters are going to get split up pretty evenly. If anything, Bernie will gain the least, and Biden and Warren the most.

There seems to be the assumption that Bernie and Warren are going to gain most of the dropouts’ supporters and that will eat into Biden’s lead. I don’t think there’s any evidence that’s how it will play out.

I think it depends who is dropping out. Gillebrand voters are more likely to go warren or Biden than Bernie I’d imagine.

Me: I have far too much money on Predictit, I shouldn’t deposit any more.

Predictit: There is a 20% chance Coney gets charged with federal crimes.

I’m pretty sure the 10% fee only applies if you sell shares at a profit. If you wait for the market to settle, you don’t pay that fee.

Yeah, been obsessed with PI for a bit … Maybe obsessed is too much, but …

It’s capped. Shuts out tons of smart money.
People abandon 2-3% on wagers that are done but not settled
Skews in favor of some demos

Is there another way to deposit but CC?

Really? That seems huge.

Ok. I did a more careful job of looking this and I am wrong and Trolly is correct. If a mod wants to delete my earlier post, feel free, I don’t want people to be misinformed. The 10% fee applies on any profit you make from any trade, period.

I believe their rules are ambiguous as they stated that the fee applies when you sell your shares. If you go to the faq, it becomes clear that this applies when the market settles. I think they should be much more clear about this.

Lol Gabbard to make the debate still trading at 0.04. The delusion.

A market that is 100% over and will settle at the latest 2 weeks from now. If you have money sitting in your account unused and aren’t maxed, this is literal free money.