Bailout / Stimulus Discussion (Hints Missed & Shartz Fired)

Politics & News
3218

Our beliefs on what the response to COVID should be are based on assumptions and uncertain outcomes. If we acted based only on those things that we know for sure, then we should open up faster and hope for the best-case scenario.

My side does not refuse to see the possibility of nothing. We are of a belief that something through November and nothing after that until January is functionally close to the equivalent of nothing when looking at a time frame through January, so we are interested in minimizing the probability of nothing post-election.

It’s frustrating that you are hanging your shingle on the idea that anyone who opposes you must be doing so out of a cynical and heartless electoral strategy. People can be equally moral while disagreeing on what should be done.

1 Like
3219

Moscow Mitch is evil incarnate. Literally 100% evil incarnate. If you think he is anything less than 100% evil incarnate you are just wrong.

3 Likes
3220

Well maybe you don’t know all the context.

1 Like
3221

This is false. Here’s what happened:

  1. The Democrats passed a good bill in MAY. Was it more than necessary? Maybe. But you don’t open from a compromise position. It was a good faith bill. The Senate, if we had a functional government, would then pass its opening bill in good faith, which would have been less money but within the realm of good faith, and both sides would work from there. Instead the Senate did nothing.

  2. The Senate waited right up until the deadline to act, thus creating the trolley problem. This could have been handled 3 months ago, with plenty of time for back and forth, but the Senate wanted deadline pressure. The ball was in their court the whole time, but they sat on it so they could utilize the leverage of a deadline. That’s when hostages were taken and laid on the trolley tracks.

  3. The GOP (McConnell at least) does not want to speed up the trolley, they want to slow it down until after the election. They want to run over everyone, they just want to make sure they don’t get destroyed at the polls first. All they care about is finding the sweet spot where they give as little aid as possible while still giving themselves the best chance to win in November. They don’t want people to realize there’s still a trolley bearing down on them, essentially, until it’s too late to remove them from power.

  4. Trump, either in a massive moment of sheer stupidity or in a massive bluff gone awry, said “I can fix this myself! I just have to hit this button here…” and hit the Staples easy button, then went home. Mitch McConnell is left standing there with a WTF look on his face, and that’s where we are. A lot of the public thinks Trump did some serious stuff to address the problems, but they’re about to find out.

WE passed a bill in May. The Senate passed nothing. They didn’t even vote on anything. They threw the people on the tracks, expected the Dems to cave like usual, and when they didn’t, Trump fucked up.

1 Like
3222

Nancy Pelosi and Jerry Nadler could very easily have impeached Trump over the Russia collusion. It would have been the right thing to do.

House Dems could have very easily issued subpoenas early on when it was blatantly obvious Trump and the GOP would not come in without them. It would have been the right thing to do.

House Dems could have very easily had the Sergeant at Arms enforce subpoenas when they were defied, it would have been the right thing to do.

House Dems could have very easily impeached Barr, Pence and Pompeo. It would have been the right thing to do.

Mitch McConnell could very easily do the right thing in November, but he won’t.

In each of these cases you expected the actors involved to act intelligently and in good faith. In each and every case I told you that was not going to happen. In each and every case you were wrong.

Yet, here we are again. Only this time instead of expecting virtuous competence from establishment Democrats, you’re expecting good faith and upstanding morality from… [checks notes] … Mitch McConnell.

Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.
Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.

1 Like
3223

I know sarcasm

But I still feel obliged to channel all my hatred for Moscow Mitch

Which is I why I took so long to create this post this any time I need to say fuck you Mitch

3 Likes
3224

Yeah that’s not annoying

3225

That was one of the best posts that’s ever existed on the internet.

You should actually create a Twitter account just to get that thread out there.

2 Likes
3226

Because it’s Nunnehi yet again refusing to live in the real world and then treating everyone who does like an idiot/monster I’m fine with it. Where cuse is going wrong is reading those posts in the first place.

6 Likes
3227

Did you guys, like, all watch that Showtime Russiagate movie and lose your cool while I wasn’t posting? Or are you all really just this bad at conditional probability? The histrionics ITT are pretty ridiculous, though it is amusing to me to see this back-of-envelope trolley problem thinking revealed in its full utilitarian splendor. Let me indulge you, though. Here are the options:

  1. Get $1T now + win across the board in November + get another relief bill in January (best outcome)
  2. Get $1T now + lose either Senate or presidency + no relief bill in January (mediocre outcome)
  3. Get $0 now + win across the board in November + get a relief bill in January (mediocre outcome, but the best possible under your strategy)
  4. Get $0 now + win across the board in November + no relief bill in January (unlikely but possible)
  5. Get $0 now + lose either Senate or presidency + no relief in January (most likely outcome under the strategy you’re urging)

You guys are saying we have to go for option 3 because taking the $1T makes the Republicans look good. It’s left completely unaddressed why Democrats couldn’t just come out with rhetoric saying something to the effect of “While we recognize that this amount is grossly inadequate, we realized something needed to be done to restart the flow of money, and this paltry amount is all those bastards would give us. Vote for us in November to get the relief you really deserve!”

In short, you’re all ignoring that scenario 5 is by far the most likely outcome for your plan. Which amounts to ignoring the slight upside of scenario 2 and the highest upside scenario 1. I’d say it’s the classic mistake of “making the perfect the enemy of the good,” except you’re actively refusing to consider the worst case scenario for your plan and refusing to see the best case scenario. This is especially amusing coming from Biden supporters, since he promises to govern well to the right of Obama–he won’t pass M4A, won’t restore the social welfare state, won’t pass a Green New Deal, won’t pass UBI, likely won’t raise the minimum wage, and won’t raise taxes on the wealthy.

IOW you think you’re playing poker, but you’re actually playing chess. When someone dies, they’re gone forever. Give me the full mathematical equation using the effect on Biden’s estimated win% and all of the relevant Senate races as wedge variables, with deaths as the relevant units, and a full estimate of the death toll of a second Trump term, with specifics as to cause of death. No verbal shortcuts. I want to see you calculate in blood. Of course, an accurate calculation will take hundreds of hours of research, but I believe in you guys.

5 Likes
3228

I mean, this is a good point. Guys are assuming that the amount of relief the Senate wants will tip the election for them. This is far from certain, maybe not even likely. OTOH, Mitch et al. act like they think it will help them.

3229

The discussion was good the first time and ok the next 3 or 4 times. Now that we’re on round 10 of the very same arguments back and forth it’s getting tiring. But I’m honestly not sure what I expect to see when I open the thread. The thread is Lucy and I’m Charlie Brown.

3 Likes
3230

I’m just waiting for the scene where cuserounder and nunnehi finally realize they’re actually in love with each other and have mad, passionate sex.

12 Likes
3231

Take the L and move on already.

2 Likes
3232

Can we all talk about the absurdity of the guy who claimed the Republicans were actually going to turn on Trump during the impeachment trial claiming that the Dems should cave in to Republican demands now?

7 Likes
3233

This fucking bill that you’re claiming the Dems should cave on doesn’t actually help anyone either. It’s a minor unemployment boost that will quickly run out, but let’s Republicans handout money to businesses again plus liability protection for employers. Cmon Charlie Brown.

7 Likes
3234

This never happened.

I’m glad everyone in this thread is showing who they are, though. These things are important to know. If anything, you’re the biggest surprise. I’m not surprised about anyone else on this side other than you.

You are very correct that any small bill that gets passed right now doesn’t help anyone (it does, but way too late), but that’s because no one did anything when they should have.

I’m just going to say one last thing on this, and you can all stew in your consciences for the next month (I know, I know, there will be none of this). The CARES Act passed the Senate unanimously when no one knew what was going on. It was way too slow and way too small, but it happened due to giving something to rich people who didn’t need it.

Now, people like Cuse who keep saying Mitch doesn’t care like I somehow don’t know this, keep saying you’re not getting anything from Mitch. Well, guess what, Nancy’s not negotiating with Mitch and never has been during this phase. The House is supposed to get in concert with the Senate and then ship something to the WH to sign or not. Mitch said overtly, ‘I’ll pass whatever the Dems and WH agree to’. Mark Meadows, one of the dumbest monsters of the Tea Party Freedumb Caucus is their chief negotiator. Throughout the negotiations, Nancy belittled Meadows as the fraud clown he is and told the press about it. That always works out well in a supposedly serious negotiation. Again, you who can’t even step into a little bit of introspection about how disgusting this thread is, keep saying something is happening that is not happening. Mitch lives rent free in your head despite being nowhere near any of these negotiations. And he’s doing it with that smile that was posted upthread by Chuck.

His messaging for a long time (probably since around the time the HEROES Act passed) essentially was, ‘we passed a huge bill unanimously with the Democrats at the beginning of this thing. They’re not taking this seriously with their giant wish list unrelated to coronavirus, so whatever they agree to with the WH is fine with me.’

Politically, the reason why the CARES Act passed was because of Steve Mnuchin and Meadows not being on staff at the WH yet. Mnuchin saw the urgency, but didn’t want what the Dems did. Mnuchin got blamed by Trump and the GOP for ‘doing too much’. Therefore, he lost his seat at the table as an actual mouthpiece of Trump and instead a guy who literally wants to drown people in the bathtub and burn down the federal government while being a total sycophant and stupid as a rock is the chief negotiator. I’m sorry, guys, but in this transaction, the Democrats are the terrorists and the GOP refuses to negotiate with them. The reality right is now both are terrorists trying to kill as many as possible to try to advance their political chances. All the people arguing the Dem side in this thread fall under that last sentence whether want to believe it or not. They just believe they’re doing it for a good cause.

Again, this thread is gross, all I tried to do when bringing this up was to say stop being gross. What happened was people became more and more gross doubling and tripling down and I learned some things about some people that I wished I never knew. Others, it was no surprise at all.

The only L anyone should be taking here are the people who are willing to articulate into words in any way, or take this side without articulating why, that this is okay or even right. If these same people want to then say they’re the ‘good guys’ who actually care instead of that they’re just thinking of it like numbers on a page, no way. I want them to admit they’re looking at these casualties as chattel they don’t mind to lose to get what they want (that they very well may never get).

So far, in this thread of people who have defended this side, the only one I’m surprised about is Meb. It’s one thing to think it’s the right thing to do to sacrifice people unnecessarily for what you believe is a ‘good’ aim. It’s quite another to actually write it and defend it when challenged (by saying you’re the good guy when the result is unnecessary destruction of lives). The moral compass on this forum has always been a bit off, but it’s further off than normal lately. I have no interest in saying I told you so when the bad things happen due to your callous disregard for human life. It’s gross, end of story.

3235

You’ve certainly got one side of it wrong.

3236

What we want is to save more lives. We mind losing any, but we already know for a fact we’re losing a lot. We’re not happy about it, we just understand the reality and operate within it.

You’re still in denial about the fact that losing a lot is inevitable, and to protect yourself from that reality you’re advocating for kicking the can down the road and hoping for a miracle that isn’t coming because it’s not realistic.

It’s the same as impeachment, you were in denial and refused to accept the truth.

You admit the GOP doesn’t care about saving lives and wants to give $0 generally speaking, you understand that they want to kick the can 2.5 months per road, and you can’t seem to connect the dots on why. It helps their electoral chances.

Helping their electoral chances means increasing the odds of zero additional aid for 2+ years.

You insist on treating all unknowns as 50-50 propositions. Like, the odds of a flush draw hitting on the turn or river are 38%. It’s not 50-50 because it’s an unknown.

I don’t know what the turn and river will be, but I know that a short term extension changes the odds in their favor and also means we’ll get 2.5 months of help followed by 2.5 months of no help followed by the odds being against us for additional help. That’s a shitty proposition.

There is no I told you so. We all know people are going to lose jobs and homes, go hungry, and in some cases die. All of us hate it, none of us want it, but we understand it is inevitable. This is what happens when you have 2/3 of the federal power held by monsters during a pandemic and massive recession.

This is a loss minimization scenario, there’s no silver bullet. Your genius scenario is to give the monsters exactly what they want now, and hope they turn into good guys in 2.5 months.

Motherfucker, Mitch McConnell is NOT going to respond by doing the right thing. 0.0% chance.

1 Like
3237

He was also sure the eDems were going to impeach on Russia and Nancy and Nadler were genius leaders who were plotting carefully to do the right thing.

He also legit thought there was a real chance they would impeach Barr, Pompeo AND Pence.

Nunnehi’s brand is being absurdly wrong and wishcasting that the same people who keep sound the same things will suddenly do the opposite.

But I’m the moron who keeps arguing with the same dude saying the same thing wishing he’ll wake to and realize it’s the opposite.

@cuserounder Motherfucker, nunnehi is NOT going to respond by accepting reality. 0.0% chance.
x100

(I won’t make you all scroll through my rant at myself.)