Afghanistan Wars: The Taliban Strikes Back.

I don’t actually believe him but kudos for saying the right thing.

I mean he’s right. It shouldn’t take 20 years to train an army to defend its country against the Taliban. Whether that’s a failure on America or Afghanistan’s part is unclear to me. Not sure how much America focused on training the Afghan army.

Based on suzzer’s comments, it seems that a lot of American weapons got funneled to the Taliban anyway. I suspect that there was a ton of corruption that allowed something like this to happen.

The corruption could be considered accepting American aid in the first place. Better way to understand it is malleable people in a poor country responding to incentives in a predictable way.

1 Like

I’d guess most of that equipment will soon be junk. Maintenance and spare parts are a problem. I could be wrong-- the Iranians are somehow able to keep their 55 year-old F-14s flying.

I think we trained the shit out of the Afghan army, just like they were 18yos from South Carolina at Camp Pendleton. We gave them guns, salaries, tactics, etc. What we didn’t do was situate them in terms of a role in the broader context of Afghan society or an image of Afghan society that had buy-in from the public and from themselves. Most just rode the gravy train, in a lesser way than their commanders, and their commanders’ commanders, who really rode the gravy train.

What good is an army without a purpose and cause that they and their countrymen believe is just and worth fighting and potentially dying for? You can’t really train that into an army. Marxists and other revolutionaries are big into intellectuals, because they provide the roadmap for the proletariat–they explain how their activities fit into the big picture. What was the roadmap for the Afghan army?

I’m reading Hobsbawm’s The Age of Revolution: Europe 1789–1848, and one thing he notes is that the three “revolutionary” groups in, say, 1830’s Europe–the liberals, the radical democrats, and the socialists–could at least all unite against Monarchists and absolutists. Hell, they even more or less got along with one another as long as they had a common enemy.

What ideas or forces were we able to unite Afghan society against?

I’m no expert, but that’s my assumption as well. Feels like the criticisms of equipment left behind are mostly sensationalist - particularly when right wing hacks start posting stuff like “Well NOW the Taliban is an Air Force.”

2 Likes

Part of this is you get bad information. And you know it’s probably bad, but in his position you can’t escape having to rely on people whose analysis, estimates and projections, let’s face it, haven’t been close to right.

Yeah it just seems unlikely the Taliban is going to be able to afford the up-keep on an inventory of equipment some our allies couldn’t support.

To be honest, I don’t think we’re completely leaving the country. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn about a stay-behind mission a la Operation Gladio taking place in Afghanistan to prevent the Chinese or Russians from trying to take over.

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1427386834523463681

https://twitter.com/aliamjadrizvi/status/1426955674236424195

Is this asshole still reminding people about how he predicted the recession before it happened like he’s some super-genius?

Good time to buy imo

https://twitter.com/HamidShalizi/status/1427341653916983305

Boy, it would really sure be bad for America’s relative standing in the world if China or Russia decided the time has come for them to govern Afghanistan.

I’m with these guys. You won’t find me and my daughter on the bumper cars without my trusty ak-47.

2 Likes

Bro, does the Taliban even lift?

4 Likes

Looks like The Mighty Ducks of armed forces.

Wonder how effective the flying V would be for them.

Russia already tried that one

Don’t know. I was more interested in the message than the messenger.