A straw poll was held among high school students for the Czech election and it’s proof to me that they aren’t the problem.
ANO, the party that will likely get a plurality of the votes in the election, only got 8.5% of the votes from the high schoolers. Meanwhile, the Green Party got 7.1% of the vote when they’ll likely get no more than 1 or 2% of the vote in the actual election. To be fair, that’s because the Green Party is basically useless here and no adult who wants Babis to fuck off will vote for a party that has no shot at making the 5% threshold.
Speaking of that, it was nice to see the far-right parties and the old parties (Communists, and Social Democrats) not make the threshold in this mock election.
Just goes to show that they aren’t the problem. It’s the olds that are fucking things up.
What were you hoping for? I doubt the Social Democrats are interested in a grand coalition. That means the Green Party will be part of the next administration. It’s a travesty that the tied for fourth largest party FDP will get to be kingmaker.
I was hoping that the Social Democrats+Greens get enough seats that they can dangle a SPD/Grüne/Linke coalition over the FPD’s head to keep their demands reasonable. Now I will have to sweat a possible Jamaica coalition.
What I was hoping for? Common sense maybe? How can you go from 28 to 15. Just because of the mistakes of Baerbock? The CDU is corrupt, Scholz entangled in the shady Cum-Ex And Wirecard stuff and they dont lose that big. So I assume people just dont give a fuck. In the end its a media thing as well. They just didnt cover all this stuff. The satire show “Die Anstalt” covered this stuff more in depth than most others.
I honestly doubt that there is a chance for SPD-FDP and Greens. The ideas of the FDP are too far off. So in the end I think they come up with SPD/CDU again.
The CDU will never agree to be a junior partner.
I think there are three options now.
SPD/Greens/FDP
CDU/Greens/FDP (chancellor Söder)
SPD/Green minority government.
Man there’s gonna be a government crisis in the Czech Republic.
As expected, it appears that ANO is gonna get the most votes. While it’s true that a lot of the uncounted vote is in cities, it won’t be enough for the right-wing coalition to topple them.
What makes this interesting is that it looks like its former coalition partners aren’t going to make the 5% threshold to get a seat. Two of the three original big parties in the Czech Republic are likely to be out of the chamber of deputies for the first time since the inception of the country as a democracy.
If the numbers stay the way they do, we might see something truly terrifying: ANO teaming up with the far-right SPD. Gotta bank on either the right or left coalition gathering a larger share of the votes as the count comes in.
EDIT: If ANO and SPD pulled a coalition, it wouldn’t be enough. They’d have 100 (EDIT: 97) of 200 seats. And the coalitions are likely to increase their share as the cities count. So it’s looking like there’s gonna be a crisis. But if somehow this leans a bit further towards ANO, then WAAF
The Pirate Party is getting massacred. Looking at going from 22 seats to 3 projected seats. Their coalition partner is currently looking at 34 projected seats, up from 6.
With the Social Democrats and Communists both unlikely to make 5% whatever government created will be a right-leaning one. I mean it beats having ANO but that’s a pretty low bar to trip over.
I guess if any government is gonna form at this point, it’ll involve the two coalitions combining together and the right coalition is much larger than the left. They have little in common other than hating Andrej Babiš.
Baring anything unforeseen, the next ruling coalition in Germany will be Social Democrats/Greens/Liberals. The Liberals by tying for 4th in the election still got enough leverage to make some hefty demands like gaining control of the finance ministry.
In third place there is left-wing Jean-Luc Mélenchon with ~20-22% who already asked his voters to not give a single vote to Le Pen.
Éric Zemmour is to the right of Le Pen. All his votes will go to Le Pen. He got 7% (pre-election polls predicted 9%).
It will be close either way. I expect that all the right wing voters will reliably go to the polls while it’s harder for Macron to energize the left.
I am no expert on French regions, but Haute-de-France in the north sounds at least Florida-ish:
It is teeming with activity at polling station number 12 in the Jean-Jacques Rousseau School in the town of Henin-Beaumont. An elderly lady proudly tells dozens of film crews that she just cast her ballot for National Front (FN) candidate Marine Le Pen. An agitated man who just voted for far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon yells that she should be ashamed of herself and then hurls crude insults at her. She shouts back that she wants out of Europe and this is the perfect opportunity to do so. Though she cannot really tell DW exactly why she, like Marine Le Pen, is so opposed to the EU, saying only: “I have had enough, and the whole system is rotten.” The mood is tense here on election day.
Le Pen doesn’t publicly embrace the Great Replacement theory like Zemmour does. Zemmour also seems clearly to the right of Le Pen in talking about feminism.
Zenmour’s parents are French Algerian, his wife’s family is from Tunisia, and he preaches the “Great Replacement theory”. Good luck figuring that guy out.
