2024 US Presidential Election (Taylor's Version)

https://x.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1050391663552671744

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If his concern is ā€œwoke cultureā€ and then you tried to talk to him about how privileged he is, Iā€™d imagine you just reinforced his opinions.

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Lol that never gets old. Way too accurate.

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Itā€™s pretty clear Kamala is stumbling a bit down the stretch here. Hopefully she gets a second wind from somewhere because the vibes have waned.

Even if she isnā€™t stumbling in reality, the perception is starting to be that she is and thatā€™s all that matters.

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Yeah probably. My praxis game needs work I guess.

We were very close friends though, so I felt I could use a little more aggression than normal. Def wouldnā€™t be talking about privilege to potential swing voters I donā€™t know very well.

I have some friends like this who watch Bill Maher and grouse about DEI and trans issues. Iā€™m pretty sure theyā€™re all still voting Harris. Doesnā€™t matter because theyā€™re in CA anyway.

Not clear to me. She called Trump a loser last night.

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Yeah I donā€™t think she or the dems are stumbling exactly. The initial excitement has worn off to some extent, but more importantly Trump and the GOP re-focused and got back to playing the hits.

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For real. Her interview appearances lately have been stellar. Vibes train still choo chooing along.

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I think Kamalā€™s vibes are fine and sheā€™s continuing to do well. Trump seems to not be pivoting much to the center (heā€™s tried here and there, but itā€™s just not in him), and I think that continues to hurt him. Voting is already happening.

No one was voting for Joe Biden in 2020, they were voting against Trump. If anything, Trump has shed some of his bullshiter sheen (and more boomers have passed on) and Kamala is preferable to Biden among many low info voters. She was winning easily statewide in CA when it was less blue than it is now because sheā€™s generally likable, and likable wins elections.

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I disagree. Vibes have only waned for the obsessive poll followers. In the real world I had a friend ask in a group chat to explain what the real deal is with Harris and Trump. This is a military guy, not very bright or informed, probably never voted for a Democrat in his life. Will he still pull the lever for Trump? Maybe. But a world where this guy is curious enough to ask about Harris is not a world where Trump stands a chance.

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This ā€œmessage board vibes have wanedā€ thing has little relation to obsessive poll following. The polls have mostly been okay with some occasional bad ones thrown in.

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Kimmel tells me the vibes are fine. That may not mean anything but Iā€™m glad there are people out there a lot more hopeful than I am.

https://x.com/whstancil/status/1844114805575254375?s=46&t=k3YA52U8SV6oodQANcy20g

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Iā€™m just a sample of one, but the more I see and listen to her, the more I like her. The contrast between her and Trump is remarkable. She comes off as presidential. She can speak in complete sentences. She is relatable and has a human side. She can also be serious and tough.The more I see of her the more depressing it is for me to think that this race is anywhere near as close as it is

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Sounds like heā€™s taking about this

Which, ok, but if we donā€™t know what the trigger is, it doesnā€™t seem much more helpful than saying weā€™re all talking about it because weā€™re all talking about it.

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This has been Stancilā€™s thing for a while now, and heā€™s absolutely right. It started with the huge difference between public opinion (vibes) about the economy as opposed to all actual, real indicators about the economy.

Itā€™s all driven by the media/social media environment.

One person will go viral saying they paid $45 for a slice of toast and all of a sudden, everyone believes the economy is horrible because slices of toast cost $45!

(no matter that it was high end avocado toast that he had delivered by Uber Eats from a restaurant 30 miles away)

To be clear I donā€™t really think Kamala has done anything wrong. I am still going to enthusiastically vote for her. I just mean it seems obvious there has been a shift over the past couple of weeks and I really canā€™t put my finger on why. Maybe it is the above explanation. Makes more sense than anything else I can figure out at this point.

There might be a vibe shift among beltway pundits and the terminally online, but Kamala is still packing stadiums and Trump is struggling to pack in 1/4 as many for his rambling, incoherent, lackluster old man story hour.

Iā€™m not convinced this vibe shift is filtering down to the base and the last 4 or 5 undecided voters in each state.

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