Biden will glitch multiple times and everyone will FREaK OUT!
Trump will kinda glitch once or twice and maybe say Hitler wasn’t so bad if you really think about it, and everyone will say “Hmm, he did some Trump Will Be Trump stuff, but basically seemed presidential. Big win!”
This is a lock to be the outcome.
Do you think it doesn’t change anything if the ratio of mainstream news stories about Biden vs Trump’s mental capacity flip flops?
This isn’t how MOEs work. The confidence intervals are assuming a representative sample. If there is systemic bias in a large number of polls that’s not noise it’s bad polling. MOES are essentially useless in those cases. Honestly, there is a strong argument for not including those confidence intervals is the papers.
Biden is going to annihilate Trump compared to the expectations of people after hearing Biden senile for a couple years. Biden looks most old when he walking around, so assuming he can pull through getting to podium he going to rock Trump
I think it’s very possible that Biden is way underperforming in most polls. It’s sick that down ballot Dems in swing states have considerable polling leads where top of the ticket Biden is down. What a waste… That said, it might be a good thing?
Just a shocking level of wishful thinking and ignorance here even after 9 years of the most egregious shit and a lifetime of it really.
Trump could whip his dick out jerk off and fail to ejaculate while getting soft and the NYT will write an opinion piece about how Biden is so undesirable even Trump cant get a boner.
The only outcomes from tomorrow are neutral at best for Biden. Everyone hates him and is looking for plausible deniablity to jump ship to the nazi guy.
You guys really think ALL THE POLLZ ARE OFF??? Biden is historically unpopular and 900 years old which means he is incapable of convincing anyone he has any merit on his own ever again. He has a great chance to win but the fact we are running this historically racist, centrist, loser geriatric fuck again is insane.
Yes, it is insane
Yes, we think the polls are off
My vote is the polls are not currently “wrong” they just don’t represent how people going to respond to polls a week before Election Day and Biden going to poll better then and win in line with those polls
Why?
Biden is losing support amongst minorities and young people which is why his poll numbers suck. Do you think Biden will have the same level of support from young people and minorities as 2020? I don’t. Not even close. He barely won last time in an election so close they waited almost a week to call it. He has no margin for error.
Biden’s wheelhouse is oblivious shitlibs. As near as i can tell you can’t win an election only enthusing those types.
And again for anyone who hasnt actually looked at the battleground polling it isn’t like Biden is winning 40% of those polls and Trump 60%. Biden is literally winning no polls in most battleground states since February. A couple of states he wins like 20% of the polls. And Biden has to actually win the majority of those states to have any chance in the EC.
The polls might be wrong but if they aren’t that is extremely bad news. Especially considering the current makeup of most state governments and the supreme court.
Biden is going to need to win this election by at least as much as last time for it it stick and there is no indication or evidence that will actually happen 4.25 months out.
the polls are what we thought they were. wha-what-they- what they thought they were. he lost the last election. who the hell takes a june presidential poll? like, it’s bullshit. it’s bullshit! it was the same matchup last election he lost the last election. the POLLS are what we thought they were! and that’s why there’s only one real poll, and that’s in november. now if you wanna crown him, THEN CROWN HIS ASS. but the polls are what we thought they were!
Just a friendly reminder about how much Trump overperformed the polls in 2020:
Wisconsin:
Polls - Biden +8.1
Actual - Biden +0.6
Pennsylvania:
Polls - Biden +3.1
Actual - Biden +1.1
Ohio:
Polls - Trump +0.9
Actual - Trump +8.0
North Carolina
Polls - Biden +0.6
Actual - Trump +1.4
Michigan:
Polls - Biden +5.9
Actual - Biden +2.8
Iowa:
Polls - Trump +1.5
Actual - Trump +8.2
Florida:
Polls - Biden +2.1
Actual - Trump +3.4
If the polls were to be believed, Biden was heading for somewhere between a comfortable victory and a landslide. Instead it was so close it took a week to call it.
I realize there are some obvious problems with using 2020 for anything as a standard, but if the polls are off by as much as they were then, Biden is getting absolutely slaughtered.
Didn’t Trump majorly outperform the polls in 2016 as well?
Yes.
For example, Hillary won literally every poll in Michigan in October and November 2016.
many people are saying that any two consecutive elections is a trend. but poker nerds should know the sample size is too small dammit! also, the trend is that polls miss and overcorrect all the time.
still, trmp is literally his own worst enemy. he could have run away with 2020 if his campaign didn’t set a billion dollars on fire in a thousand ways. y’all remember brad parsquale? yeah, that was who trmp decided to keep, and his campaign is way worse now. they are more dangerous, but come on, lara, et al coulnd’t run a lemonade stand without taking money from billionaire nazi memorabilia collectors.
I have absolutely no idea how this plays out. Won’t be a blowout either way, but either Trump or Biden winning convincingly could happen. It’s just so embarrassing that this is as close as it is. Like, a major political party might lose again to the former host of NBC’s The Apprentice.