2024 US Presidential Election (Taylor's Version)

[clovis8]

Plot of Civil War movie itt!

[TrollyWantACracker]

I used to like voting a lot more back when they had those huge voting machines where you got to pull the lever. I think if the dems want to increase turnout, they should mandate new voting machines that give you a little animation when you vote like slot machines do .

[Cornboy]

If anyone wants some non-polling hopium, I listened to a new-ish episode of Chris Hayes’ podcast Why Is This Happening. He had North Carolina’s 26 year old Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton. She sounds like an absolute killer (politically), insanely good at being on message, basically who we all hope can take power in that party. They’ve got very few races in NC where the Dem’s aren’t running a candidate for the first time in a long time. NC is gerrymandered like crazy but gave me some hope listening to her.

[microbet]

Maybe I might lean towards saying you’re right, but it’s subjective and I think it’s not entirely unreasonable to say 1 in 10 million is not essentially zero, while 1 in 100 billion is.

[LFS]

@Chuckleslovakian

It’s kind of a paradox. I am fully aware my single vote has almost 0 chance of mattering in my life. But if everyone who believed their single vote wouldn’t matter and went out and voted anyway, it would be a massive shift in our elections. Which is why I am still voting.

Yeah to me it sounded like people were trying to use math to address a philosophical issue. But to be fair I do not enjoy math and love philosophy.

[microbet]

@AngryQueer

And don’t complain about not living in a swing state

There are other reasons though because swing states get vastly disproportionate attention from candidates (not always a good thing).

[Bigoldnit]

Profiles in Courage sequel dropping soon…

Manchin signals he could endorse Harris while Romney stays coy | CNN Politics

“The comments by Manchin and Romney – two retiring senators who have been on the outs with their respective party’s base – underscore how Trump has turned off some more moderate voters but also how Harris herself has yet to close the deal with right-leaning voters skeptical of the former president.”

And what could help win over that skeptical Independent, you may ask?

"Manchin said he’s been playing phone tag with Harris and is “looking forward to a conversation” about energy, the national debt and keeping in tact the Senate’s filibuster, the potent stall tactic that requires 60 votes to overcome.“I would like to make sure that she understands the need for us to have a filibuster in the Senate, being a former senator, of how it kind of calms things down, makes us work together,” he said. “If they’re willing to discard all of that, they’re willing to throw caution to the wind, we’re in serious problems.”

[microbet]

The infinitesimal impact that a Manchin endorsement could have could easily be negative.

[amead]

Yeah that phone call better be “fuck off back to the holler”.

[eyebooger]

@Bigoldnit

“I would like to make sure that she understands the need for us to have a filibuster in the Senate, being a former senator, of how it kind of calms things down, makes us work together,” he said. “If they’re willing to discard all of that, they’re willing to throw caution to the wind, we’re in serious problems.”

The current governor of Minnesota famously didn’t govern like this. He got a bunch of good stuff done.

Then Kamala picked him to be her VP.

I hope that’s a very strong sign on where she stands on this.

[JonnyA]

If Routh was a convicted felon, why was he so easily able to buy an rifle plus body armor? I’m sure Republicans and Florida officials will get right on fixing this issue.

[gman42]

I feel like whether she plays ball with Manchin or not, the result is gonna be an RFK Jr-esque statement from him along the lines of “[I was deeply disturbed by her radical plans]/[She didn’t even respect me enough to call me back], this is why I have nothing in common with the modern Democratic party and cannot endorse them”. So just fuck him and don’t even bother.

[LKJ]

It’s odd, I thought he had already endorsed her. His statement here makes it sound like he’s backing the ticket.

“My friend Governor Tim Walz will bring normality back to the most chaotic political environment that most of us have ever seen. All of the candidates were strong and any one of them would have been a great pick, but I can think of no one better than Governor Walz to help bring our country closer together and bring balance back to the Democratic Party. Governor Walz is the real deal. I look forward to continuing to work with him to bring normalcy back to Washington.”

[RiskyFlush]

[superuberbob]

@RiskyFlush

Moreover, while this was the first time there was a shutout in a game with over 100 points scored

Nope. This was

222-0. PRETTY GOOD, EPISODE 10.

[ParlaySlow]

@ParlaySlow

It’s not supposed to be interpreted as whoever is ahead in the popular vote is a favorite.

Treat it like any other highly correlated predictive factor that is easier to track/model then the thing itself.

The popular vote vs. electoral count scatter plot on the 538 model gives a pretty idea of what ranges of outcome are possible. There are zero sims where Harris +6 results in a Trump win. You can eyeball it and see that a Harris +1 or +1.5 looks to be about a flip in electoral chances.

https://x.com/gelliottmorris/status/1835725357120459201

[L.Washington]

I mean the guy’s dumb as shit. If you want his endorsement just lie to him and then do whatever you’re going to do when you’re in power anyway. It’s not a particularly dangerous bridge to burn given how irrelevant WV is and will continue to be for Ds long into the future.

[ElSapo]

All this discussion over swing state voting misses or ignores that fact that NOT voting has far more impact than voting.

[dogsballs]

Stevenvanzandtnoddinggif.

[and Manchin’s a shitstick anyway]

[DrChesspain]

Does Jennifer Rubin lurk here?