Shadows look like they should be to the left of the signs
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How about this - the state proportion = your district proportion. Not which district voted for who. But if you have 20 districts and your candidate wins 75% of the vote, you get 15 EV vs. 5 EV. Can we do that?
It would be nice if everyoneâs vote mattered, not just swing states.
Show me the math of how your vote matters in a swing state
Imperialist swine graciously allowed to enjoy life in Hanoi
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I donât see how just one non-swing state could do it without hurting the party they favor. If CA did it, yeah, our vote would matter, but it would hurt the Democrats (and they control the state government so they wouldnât do it). Same thing, but for Republicans with Iowa or wherever.
Right - it has to be all the states at once, otherwise it doesnât work.
Not going to post that compact thing for the 4th time, but it doesnât have to be all the states, just a bunch of them. That could happen maybe.
Right. If say CA and TX got tired of being ignored, they could make a pact. But TX is a lot closer to going blue than CA is to going red. So it wouldnât be a good deal for CA.
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How about you show me the math behind John Lewis getting his skull broken leading to winning power?
As for me, I am comfortable concluding that doing something that a bunch of rich, conservative assholes donât want people to do in service of maintaining their own power is a good thing to do.
What the fuck are you talking about
Are you in a swing state? Iâm talking about the math behind one vote having an effect on an election result. Iâm not talking about weilding power, or what effect an election result has. Iâm asking why people get upset about how their vote would matter in a swing state but it doesnât matter in the state they live, when theyâre comparing one zero to another. If anything Iâm saying they should think their safe state vote matters if they think it would matter in a swing state.
Again, about the outcome of an election, not the cascading effects of whoâs in office.
Iâm talking about how even getting out there and putting your very body on the line protesting is not something that is mathematically correct, even though we both agree that doing so is good and productive. My claim is that voting is also good and productive, no matter the math, or else there wouldnât be so many rich assholes trying to stop people from doing it. Most things theyâre spending a ton of effort to try to stop people from doing, like protesting, unionizing, voting, even just reading books with gay characters, etc., are worth doing.
One person reading that book about the gay penguins with an adopted chick doesnât change shit, either, but a lot of people doing it can.
Iâm going to model a swing state like this: There are a bunch of voters who are committed D and an equal number of committed R and the rest are coinflips.
Below seems like a pretty good discussion on how often you get a tie.
So, say there are 20k coinflip voters in a state, you get about a 1 in 177 chance of a tie. 100k coinflip voters would be about 1 in 400 chance.
Maybe thatâs not a good way to model it, but what is? (or maybe the math is wrong)
Hereâs a little math paper on the exact question:
http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/probdecisive2
They get something better than a 1 in a 100k chance that your vote is pivotal in the best case (New Hampshire - combo of swingy and small state I reckon)
Hereâs another thing that comes up with what seems like a silly wild ass guess of: In a political election that opinion polls suggest will be very close, the chance your vote is decisive is about 13/N, where N is the number of votes.
https://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~aldous/Real-World/election.html
So, multiply that by the chance that swinging your state swings the whole election. Still, I think this number is sounding pretty non-zero, but thatâs subjective.
I hear you, but the initial claim that kicked this off was that voting mattered more in a swing state than non-swing state. You argument applies equally to both of those scenarios. If youâre going to say one matters more than the other, thatâs a math problem, imo.