Nate still gets to use the 538 handle and the fox character?
https://x.com/taniel/status/1822288878746648890?s=46
Closing this gap with the Senate candidates is huge.
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oh damn Sienna +4+4+4 is yummmmmmmmmmmmmmy
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Shannon Bream, a host on Fox News, defended Harris from some of the criticisms that the vice president has been taking from the right, saying that the surge in popularity sheâs seeing for her candidacy proves that sheâs on the right track.
"Well, I think what their number one goal so far, the message has been, âWeâre not Trump.â We are not getting into policy yet and itâs not on the website and they havenât done the interviews and theyâre really not talking about the minutia of policy on the campaign trail,â she said. âIt is, as Jesse said, itâs joyful, theyâre happy warriors, and look at this, you know, team go.
âSo how long does the honeymoon last? Does it puncture to get to policy? She said [she would answer journalistsâ questions] by the end of the month. So, a month after becoming the nominee maybe weâre going to have a sit-down interview from her. In the meantime, if Iâm advising her, I say, âJust keep doing this, itâs working,ââ Bream added. âYou have an adoring media, you have people who are not pressing you on what appear to be changes in positions and those kinds of things. It may be the debate is the first time that they get to that.
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Rumor is two unrleased polls paid for by Republicans has trump under 50%.
IN OHIO
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Trump is in a similar position as Biden was a month ago imo(although not as severe). Behind and very few pathways to catch up.
People are tired of his shit.
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ââ
Seems too good to be true; Iâll believe it when I see it.
Narrator: It doesnât.
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I am starting to think this election will end up a bloodbath. The standard republicans will end up voting against trump because the only way they will ever have a future in politics is for Trump(and MAGA) to get completely blown out the water this election. MAGA driving the party only results in the party going off the cliff.
I think the republican mayor in Arizona will be the canary in the coal mine for this.
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What percent chance would you give her right now of winning Alaska?
I donât buy it, but it would be pretty funny if, after all the discussion about how Shapiro was needed to carry PA, the people of Ohio were like, âwait, you thought we actually liked JD Vance? Lol, noâ
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Zero.
So fucking weird here. Democrats can win a senate race, house race, become a governor but president just will never happen.
I think a landslide is in play, but Iâm certainly not buying it as particularly likely yet. That said: a high-quality Florida poll would be very welcome. As write-off states go, I would think thatâs still the first one that would show signs of flipping back if Trumpâs campaign went into full collapse.
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https://x.com/trafalgar_group/status/1822344169420906551?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
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As always I have to point out in this metaphor the canary dies.
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Trafalgar is a pretty awful pollster. About Rasmussen bad.
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I thought they ended up being close in 2016, but donât know how theyâve done since
Yeah, I couldnât summon Trafalgarâs name when Rasmussen came up before, but theyâre another one where Iâm completely unbothered by their pro-R polls. Itâs basically all they do. They had Trump winning by a few points in a whole series of states he lost last time around.
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