2024 US Presidential Election: First Polls Close in 24 Hours

https://x.com/RobbySlowik/status/1853511361558630645

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Poll is closed.

Ralston’s Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent.

Harris by 0-3 wins.

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Nice to sse Zazlov dropping his dumbass 4 day embargo for this one

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https://x.com/Acyn/status/1853185670346686899

image

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:vince1:

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https://x.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1853515063291707439?t=T_AfAmTBcxmqMtUK3-olmQ&s=19

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What’s that

Polling is a fraud, a few data points:

  • Emerson releasing a final slate of swing state polls that are all within 0.5 points of the average. SEEMS LEGIT. (Emerson are notorious for doing this every cycle)

  • Hack polling firms releasing “Iowa polls” like 12 hours after the Selzer poll drops. Am I supposed to believe you had a polling team in the field in fucking Iowa before the Selzer poll, or that you can conduct, write up and release a poll in less than 24 hours? Because I don’t believe either of those.

  • Atlas Intel releasing polls for “the national popular vote, swing states, a few states not polled earlier, and Puerto Rico” in their last round of “polling”. Sorry, who is funding this operation? How many people are you employing to conduct 8 million polls at once? The fact that these guys were taken seriously at all has in hindsight been one of the more amusing plotlines this cycle.

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Lol, this is art.

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Tbf they did invent the Shrug poll

i never answered or got a poll call. what do they ask besides who you are voting for? previous voting history?

Do you? Because you say:

I see no meaningful difference between the two campaigns

If the campaigns aren’t meaningfully different to you, what do you have at stake? They’re the same thing… unless there are actually differences!

(It seems like you are aware of meaningful differences!)

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Emerson is also notorious for its students being bad at math.

The NYT has a better breakdown of when to expect results from swing states:

I got one a few months ago - don’t know if it was for a published poll or just some market research company. It was shockingly long, but I have no idea if that’s normal or if this was just extremely in depth.

Asked a lot of questions about who I thought would be better on this issue and that issue, lots of rating them (very likely, somewhat likely, not at all likely, that sort of scale) on the issues, and even asked me for my three most important issues. Shit like that.

I’ve been receiving a bunch of “scam likely” calls lately, wonder if they are polling or campaign calls.

Another massive outlier?

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I saw a young white, burly, bearded guy delivering food and his car was plastered with Harris/Walz stickers.

I’m taking that as a sign.

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I don’t remember this. This election was before I really paid attention to US politics.

https://twitter.com/25YearsAgoLive/status/1853482996806074841

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In Texas Allred running a positive campaign focused on himself while Cruz is all transgender immigrant attack ads. I can hope that since all ads only talk about Allred that he picks up some votes just due to recognition.

I think there is some trump fatigue for part of his hardcore maga base. It might not be massive but it might be enough of sitting this out to help make a difference. The energy for trump is not at an all time high and he needs it to be.