2024 US Presidential Election: First Polls Close in 24 Hours

If the gameday thread is slow, I will attempt to liven things up with hot takes about The Rocks new movie

https://x.com/JacobFisherDF/status/1853064402921996311?t=a0ctcGF0dIpaP1fO4Vv89w&s=19

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https://x.com/ElieNYC/status/1853482063766188472

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https://x.com/CNNPR/status/1853486539562492312

And from the replies. Man Jessie Smollet is the gift that keeps eternally giving for these guys.

Especially given the whole Trump political arc might have been started when he got roasted at the WHCD during Obama’s presidency.

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TIL Nate Silver is gay.

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It’s painful dems can’t communicate any of this effectively. Instead, I was in Vegas a week ago and saw a billboard with a huge picture of Kamala’s face and “NO TAXES ON TIPS” near the strip. Maybe a PAC did it, who knows. Still stupid to even entertain the idea.

Here’s a better message than just co-opting Trump’s dumb proposal: “Trump wants to make the tax code more complicated and open up new loopholes that working people will have to pay for–the same thing Washington has been doing for generations. Kamala wants to give working people a tax break and make billionaires pay their fair share. No loopholes or shenanigans.” But that’s too much to communicate so we just pretend we’ll end taxes on tips too. Then in 2026 when people are pissed we didn’t, there will be a new dumb red wave.

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https://x.com/acyn/status/1853128320281628679

If there is anything Jonald J. Trump has always stood against, it’s releasing polls that claim one candidate is winning.

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I agree that everything is dumb so why do anything? We are so far past anything being simple enough to explain in a one sentence campaign promise that talking about them seems kind of dumb. If you assume the rich are going to take advantage of every law then we need to do better about writing the laws so they can’t. Without knowing any of the numbers it is even dumberer to talk about campaign promises made by a felonious lier trying to keep his ass out of jail.

https://x.com/esjesjesj/status/1853479991033364737?t=6DPpUs11I6Ld94yozPA_lw&s=19

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I was thinking about how Dobby could have possibly come up with this prediction, other than luck, and came up blank except

image

Dobb/dobdob is/are Dobbs! Which is what Selzer points to in explaining her poll. So good job Dobby.

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Part of it is probably just that they’ve learned he’s always late so they aren’t in a hurry to get there.

https://x.com/DavidCornDC/status/1853479888121987347

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These prognosticators are so high on their own internet fame. Ralston has like 7 tweets about “well…I guess I need to make a prediction now. I’m going to start writing my prediction. My prediction will be here soon. My prediction will be out before this time. I’m trying to post my prediction. Having trouble posting my prediction!”

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He doesn’t know what to do because demographics have changed so much in the last 2 years that he’s just guessing. He’s lying if he says he’s not.

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This isn’t kind. Not to mention you’re well aware I cannot respond to this post in kind or in detail without being accused of “disrupting the community,” so it feels a little unfair.

I also understand that this particular brand of neo-liberalism masquerading as “progressivism” is appealing to people like you and your situation, but please do not accuse me of being insincere without evidence. I think my posting history here would indicate that I hold my beliefs very deeply, not even to mention I have a personal stake in much of this. What do you have at risk besides your enormous ego?

GMAFB, indeed.

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Boo, things are looking good for the GOP in Texas. Well not great, but enough to win Texas. It wasn’t much in doubt but still

https://x.com/jaspscherer/status/1853508620920492309

Final NPR/Marist national poll

Registered Voters

Harris 49
Trump 49

Likely Voters

Harris 51
Trump 47

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Yeah, Texas was only ever going to be a cherry. Hopefully Alred can still pull it out.

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Yeah I’m hoping the “voters with previous GOP primary history” in this case includes a metric fuckton of pissed-off women and a good handful of never-Trumpers. Again taking the state is a pretty Herculean task, but it won’t take as much to knock off Cruz and do some other damage downballot.

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