2024 US Presidential Election: First Polls Close in 24 Hours

Re-weighting is common. Here’s a 1993 academic article that discusses the procedures that major polling organizations used for the 1988 and 1992 elections:
Voss, S., Gelman, A., & King, G. (1995). The polls—A review: Preelection survey methodology: Details from eight polling organizations, 1988 and 1992. Public Opinion Quarterly, 59(1), 98-132.

From the “Adjusting the Data” section:

Pollsters use poststratification to adjust for known differences between the sample and target populations. The most common poststratification technique is called “weighting,” a method of adjustment based on assigning a numerical weight to each individual in the sample and then estimating population quantities by weighted averages of the individual responses. Weighting is useful because responses to particular questions of interest tend to correlate with broad demographic categories such as sex, race, region, age, education, or income. When poll data is unrepresentative on one of these categories, the analyst is alerted that the sample also might be inaccurate in its estimation of public opinion or preferences. For example, a survey that undersamples African Americans will almost certainly also underestimate support for Democrats. Therefore, in deriving population estimates fromtheir sample statistics, organizations generally weight their reportedresults to take into account demographic discrepancies between sample and population.

Here’s how they describe CBS:

CBS uses several stages of weighting. A demographic weight is determined by five steps, based on (a) number of adults in the household, such that the weight is the average household size within the U.S. population divided by the number in the respondent’s household; (b) number of telephone lines in the household, with a weight of 1 for one-line homes and 0.5 for homes with more than one line (regardless of how many more); (c) a ratio of households within each of the Census Bureau’s four regional categories by the sample number in each region; (d) race by sex ratios, where race is divided as black and nonblack; (e) age by education ratios, with age divided into four groups, 18-29, 30-44, 45-64, and 65 years and older, and education divided into four groups as well: “not a high school graduate,” “a high school graduate,” “some college without graduation,” and “college graduate.” Sometimes educational groups are collapsed within age groupings, particularly when cell sizes are very small or when weighting effects disproportionately influence educational differences within age categories.

Then they describe how they weight be probable electorate category:

So it’s been happening for minimum 40 years and almost certainly much longer.

I think he can angleshoot this one easily. There is chemical castration. And I think that it is more or less reversible (especially if you just do a single dose on camera).

Fucking house elves and their voodoo magic

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Dead even herded polling is really the worst case scenario for Nate. Because if nothing else his model did a good job at showing how polling error uncertainty translates to a probability (i.e. someone leading by 6 wins x% of time).

When the polling is even and the model says it’s 50/50, it’s just like yeah gee thanks for the insight.

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Isnt that what Silver has kinda been raging against the last few days?

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pleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleasepleaseplease

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Someone needs to redo the Hitler downfall video.
“Well at least we can count on Iowa.”
“Mein fuhrer, we’ve lost Iowa.”

You can probably get Trump to see it and truth about it.

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Sure. It’s just weird to say a poll is “a sample size of one.” You could, for example, aggregate and weigh 1,000 polls and someone could say “bro, that’s just a sample size of one.” I’m not deep enough into stats to really say what’s going on with that.

I think we get some funky results Tuesday. So much has changed since 2016 with people moving/dying during the pandemic and demographics switching allegiances that its hard to believe the 43 non swing-states are just gonna stay the exact same as the last two elections. Trump winning any of NM/Colorado/NH/Maine would not shock me, Kamala winning any of MT/AK/OH/Iowa/Kansas would also not surprise me either.

He knows he’s cooked

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1853110697602752989?s=46

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1853112942234927601?s=46

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1853113887316439541?s=46

https://x.com/atrupar/status/1853117368328704188?s=46

https://x.com/samstein/status/1853105007505088618?s=46

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Right into my veins. He’s tired and angry and whiny. Might have a cold.

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Be a shame if the exhaustion and stress got the better of him in these last days.

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It would be perfectly on brand for Trump to die tomorrow for maximum chaos.

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I mean, in theory, using their logic, Republicans should be against voter ID as well. That way they could cheat and things would be even.

He probably stayed up past his bedtime watching SNL

https://x.com/mattmfm/status/1853106068496261392

That is a great collection of clips. Dude is so, so cooked. Maybe that’s why he’s been looking extra toasted lately.

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Man, I really wanna believe, but I’m not falling for the Lucy/Charlie Brown routine.

Trump has this. 270-268, NE changes the rules after the fact, SC upholds, 269-269, house picks Trump and he’s sworn in.

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Shuuuuuuuuuut uuuuuup dam

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Polls are the Omaha of politics.

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