I am learning who Annie Seltzer Water is, so maybe she put her finger on the scale to get a little press
Live feed from Selzer HQ.
So what are you going to do when it’s a dem trifecta?
I don’t know what this means, can you rephrase or something
From her past performance I don’t think so
Well it wouldn’t work unless she had been good in the past
I was joking but still
The first set of states close their polls at 9:30am in my time zone, so I’ll be up all “night”, clicking buttons trying to win money.
Model update just because of one poll? Or just coincidental timing/moving up a scheduled update
Tuesday I’m gonna go get lunch and swing by this large highway pedestrian overpass near my house that trumpers have been at on previous election days. If they’re there, I’m grabbing my sign and a chair and gonna go there and see what happens. (spoiler: he got punched in the face)
This is the 100% legit, this lady isn’t screwing around, poll people have been waiting to drop. It was assumed that Trump +5 would be a favorable result for Kamala. People were watching for that. This is an earthquake. While it’s possible it could be a totally FUBAR sample, this is likely the day the reality of the election became apparent. I expect Predictit to flip to Kamala in the next few hours.
Brandon would have won 4 more years
Even if he would have it’s fuckin great that he didn’t
I’m still with him. #writeInBrandon
That’s so wild to me. It’s been 20 years since I took any stats classes, but it seems like this is all just divining water if one poll of one state moves consensus this much, no matter how gold standard it is
It’s definitely an outlier, and maybe it’s just something weird about Iowa, but she had Trump at +18 in like May. Dunno, Nate will likely be doing a podcast to discuss later tonight.
Right but all the other polls must truly be meaningless if this poll overrules them all