Taking all my will power not change the thread title to “enjoy the end times”.
Clovis stop stressing. Trump is done.
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Obviously I hope you are right but he is clearly a favorite right now if you include election, congressional and court fuckery.
Didn’t work last time it’s not going to work this time.
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I have flip flopped on this election so many times in the last couple weeks. All that after spending the entire Kamala period not worried at all that she would win. Now I’m back to being convinced Trump winning is a long shot.
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Definitely not. Here in Bangkok, non-MAGA is probably a minority and in general the more popular spots (London, Paris, etc) will still attract some MAGA. However, when I lived in Lyon, France, it would’ve been very tough to find a Trump supporter.
I’m right with ya. Under a fair election, I’m very confident Harris wins and even by a wide margin. But I don’t trust Republicans or the SC to be honest and not lie, cheat, and engage in whatever fuckery necessary to install Trump
I think it comes down to whether our institutions can hold one more time
There was a pollster on NPR talking about their methodology and they casually mentioned how they apply their likely voter model, but then they know that women are consistently 53% of the electorate, so they just normalize the results of the likely voter model so they always produce a 53% female electorate. Kind of eye opening.
The closeness of the election is the only thing that will cause shenanigans. I don’t think it will be close.
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Of the last 321 polls in the battlegrounds, 124 - nearly 40% - showed margins of a single point or less, the pair wrote. Pennsylvania was the most “troubling” case, with 20 out of 59 polls showing an exact tie, while another 26 showed margins of less than 1%.
This indicated “not just an astonishingly tight race, but also an improbably tight race”, according to Clinton and Lapinski.
Either explanation “raises the possibility that the results of the election could be unexpectedly different than the razor-close narrative the cluster of state polls and the polling averages suggest”, they added.
Trump supporters are quite rare in the Czech Republic. That’s mainly because Czechs have their own Donald Trump and unlike Donald, he’s actually a pretty overwhelming favorite to get his party back into control of Parliament in the next election.
The other issue is that culture war stuff just doesn’t really have the legs in the Czech Republic that it does in America. There’s a small, terminally online minority of people who are pretty dedicated to it but some of the things people complain about in America just don’t register here.
I think most Czechs saw American politics as a matter of entertainment during Trump’s first term. With the war in Ukraine going on now, a second Trump term has the potential to be a complete nightmare for the entire continent.
American expats here are as a group very much leftist. I don’t think I’ve run into a single American Trump supporter living in Prague.
If Donald Trump called Puerto Rico a garbage island, it would barely be a story. This Hinch guy really screwed up by assuming he has the same blanket immunity that society gives Trump.
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I’m like the captain of team nothing matters, and even I think that if Trump said it himself it would worse (for Trump).
This doesn’t make sense at all.
You would expect overlap. For example, Bolsanaro supporters would be expected to support Trump over Kamala, and I think that is actually the case.
It does because Babis’s party isn’t a far-right party. It’s a sort of rebranding of the old timey socialist and communist parties with a healthy amount of xenophobia mixed in. The far-right nationalist party in this country is run by a Japanese guy.
The culture grievances that power Trump and his base simply don’t have the same pull here that they do in America. People aren’t trying to pass bathroom bills and ban abortion nationwide here.