I have determined that Harris is going to win. I think absolute best case for Trump is popular vote goes 50-48-2 (Harris-Trump-other), and even then he’s probably a 30/70 dog in EC.
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I hope you’re right, but care to elaborate?
Every time a see a poll that says “LV,” my first thought is that it was a Las Vegas poll.
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My intuition tells me that Harris is going to capture the overwhelming majority of undecided Trump/Harris and no vote/Harris. I think Trump is basically capped out in the 46-47% range and Harris is going to get the rest less 1-2%. The EC disadvantage seems to be much smaller this year (like 1-2%).
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wat?
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WHEW, the lawbros are finally here to stop that dastardly Elon!
The gold standard of polls!
Yeah, but curious whether a 3.5 week sample range has a lot of value.
I hope those Secret Service agents are voting at the same time as Biden, or else they’ll be so annoyed that they have to wait in line twice.
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they might as well vote twice to get value for money if so.
The yooths.
As far as voting, to me it’s like paying a bill through the mail or physically traveling and (maybe) waiting in line. I’d do mail every time.
3rd party vote by election since 2000:
2000 - 3.75% (Nader)
2004 - 1.00%
2008 - 1.39%
2012 - 1.74%
2016 - 5.73%
2020 - 1.85%
Let’s assume that 2024 3rd party vote is 2% and Trump’s EC advantage is 2%. So he needs to get to 48% to be really in it, and 49% to be a favorite. He can definitely do it, but I don’t see this 2 to 1 edge that the betting markets have him at.
I’d have Kamala as more like a 60-40 favorite just based on my feeling of some combo that voters will break her way, and that the polling error will favor her. Neither of which the models try to guess at.
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Jill Fucking Stein - ugh
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538 has Trump’s EC edge at exactly 2.0% currently – Harris 1.6% lead nationally and trailing by 0.4% in the tipping point state of PA.
Nate has Trump’s EC edge at 1.5% (I’m assuming he also has PA as tipping pt, but I don’t subscribe).
Laying ~2 to 1 on Trump means you feel pretty good about his chances of getting 48.5%+ of the national popular vote (49.5% Harris, 48.5% Trump, 2% other). He’s never really come close to doing so, and he needs to pick up his fair share of undecideds to get there.
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NM Gary fucking Johsnon.
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She still got more than twice what she got in 2012 and four times what the Green Party candidate got in 2020.
Please… As much as we all may have known they were ultra right maga conservative assholes, there’s no way you or anyone else foresaw the highest court in the land completely shitting on the constitution. Especially after they rejected a number of Trump’s election interference cases
You can pretend all you want that you knew more than almost every legal scholar, but like I said you happened to be right for all the wrong reasons. It happens