2024 US Presidential Election: Final Fortnight

https://x.com/RawStory/status/1849497039572287791

1 Like

Does anyone know where to get information on local judges? I thought there was a website, but I canā€™t find it. Barring any into on rulings, it would be helpful to at least know if they identify as a D or R

On brand with the jorts. How was his goatee?

A guess:

eta: I was working on a jorts comment.

People acting like Michigan looks pretty safe, wisky more worrisome

https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1849536530873725396?s=46

And sheā€™s getting some gop politicians in Wisconsin endorsing her, that along with the PA bellwether above bodes well

Of the rust belt states, it looks like Michigan is by far the safest

Following from the UK Iā€™m quite sad to see how close this apparently is :frowning_face: but Iā€™m still hopeful that the polling / betting is off somehow and the favourability ratings are more reliableā€¦

Anyway Iā€™m going to dump an optimistic bet on Harris and the plan has long been to repeat what worked so well in 2020, ie wait for early terrible signs from Florida and bet against Trump when his odds collapse then wait anxiously for the late counts to save the day.

As luck would have it Iā€™m going to a Nick Cave gig on election night and have the 6th off work so I can pull an all nighter and will already be feeling suitably miserable, so Iā€™ll be banking on you guys to keep me better informed than UK news coverage is likely to! Seriously I donā€™t post much here but I read a lot and really enjoy / respect the chatter and analysis - especially on election nights.

4 Likes

Itā€™s probably going to take days to figure out who won, just so you know.

At this point theyā€™re admitting to completely making shit up and hoping it hits. I put no stock into black box methodology, polling or otherwise. If someone really wanted to do this right, theyā€™d be modeling and simming on the methodologies, not just on sampling error.

https://x.com/ElectProject/status/1849560085510697397

(edit: wireless already posted 2nd tweet above)

PredictIt line.

Polymarket current line.

Maricopa where Biden won by 2% and it was a total of 20 ballots damaged.

1 Like

more hopium for the day

https://x.com/blankslate2017/status/1849469028084920628

Seems like they specifically asked people who voted early who they voted forā€¦

2 Likes

Wish they did Nevada too

https://x.com/patricksvitek/status/1849530319671570614?s=46

This guy probably just killed his career. Good for him.

https://x.com/DerrickHoneyman/status/1849485308422721701

3 Likes

At least in my area, local and state bar associations issue endorsements. Itā€™s likely you wonā€™t find political affiliations.

He was already retiring.